Briar at Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026

Briar

16 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Kohaku Ishimaru

3rd • 7-2-0

78%

Meta

+2.7

Perf

4.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jyunnosuke Yano (Cindra) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Ryo Takashima (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Pudding Tam (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs sungbin sim (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 58:42

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs 嵩小山内 (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

40:60

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Cindra	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.34
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R7	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.89
R9	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Pudding Tam

5th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.8

Diff

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs YIKAI WANG (Dorinthea) - Expected: 90:10

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Takehiro Shibasaki (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 荻原雄生 (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Atsunori Kanamaru (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 嵩小山内 (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Ryo Takashima (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Win	✓	0.10	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-

Tsz Lung Wu

10th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.0

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs ayaka sato (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nicholas Wong (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 拓弥橋本 (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kohei Sasaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 真斗瀬理 (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Takamasa Kamei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.87
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.76
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

sungbin sim

13th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yu Cheng Lai (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Hotaka Hashimoto (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs ryo inoue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 嵩小山内 (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.34
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.15
R4	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.84
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Yuki Matsumoto

17th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mizuki Takei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs RYUTA NAKADA (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs QING GUO (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kohaku Ishimaru (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 荻原雄生 (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Manson Hsiau (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Maya Yagura

29th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.3

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs SUMETHA Udomkosonkit (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 克夫梅澤 (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Gavin Teo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Ryo Takashima (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs RYUTA NAKADA (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs sungbin sim (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.73
R5	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Manson Hsiau

31st • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 荻原雄生 (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryan Cheong (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hotaka Hashimoto (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.51
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Win	✗	0.85	1.94
R6	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

KAZUMA SUZUKI

35th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.6

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Sam Davison (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 将貴山田 (Florian) - Expected: 58:42

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Lexi) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 綸太宇野 (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85, underdog victory

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Gavin Teo (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Win	✗	0.85	1.94
R6	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.28

Yuuki Abo

36th • 4-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.8

Diff

80:20

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Koumei Kaneko (Boltyn) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Naoki Sato (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs KeDuo Yang (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 大和宮脇 (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Atsunori Kanamaru (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Boltyn	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.42
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

RYUTA NAKADA

37th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 風太荒井 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Naoki Sato (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ryo Takashima (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Maya Yagura (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 尚規石坂 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.91
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Atsunori Kanamaru

44th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.5

Surp

0.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs manh hung nguyen (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 79:21

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 大和宮脇 (Dash) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Ryotarou Yamada (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Yuuki Abo (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.10
R3	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.45
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

荻原雄生

45th • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Manson Hsiau (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 大和宮脇 (Dash) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 圭資山村 (Kassai) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Fai) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Kassai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Hiroshi Noguchi

51st • 3-4-0

29%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

2.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yuji Tanaka (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Gaia Enomoto (Enigma) - Expected: 44:56

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 聡本田 (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Taishi Naganoma (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Naoki Sato (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

15:85

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.79
R6	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.90
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-

Michael Herzner

60th • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs QING GUO (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 隆誠細井 (Katsu) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

15:85

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Oldhim) - Expected: 15:85

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Charles Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Yu Cheng Lai (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs YIKAI WANG (Dorinthea) - Expected: 90:10, favorite upset

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Katsu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	15%	Loss	✗	0.15	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.02
R6	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	90%	Loss	✓	0.90	-

Takehiro Shibasaki

72nd • 1-6-0

71%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

3.6

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Taishi Naganoma (Riptide) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Pudding Tam (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Kuan Li (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Naoki Sato (Oscilio) - Expected: 48:52

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Charles Lee (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs 将貴山田 (Florian) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

QING GUO

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Michael Herzner (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Akira Hanada (Fai) - Expected: 67:33

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Yuki Matsumoto (Briar) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs 真斗瀬理 (Dromai) - Expected: 54:46

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs hayato kawashima (Iyslander) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Fai	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.23
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.