Enigma at Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026

Enigma

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Gaia Enomoto

18th • 5-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.6

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Aurora) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs sungbin sim (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs KAZUMA SUZUKI (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Aurora	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.33
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.52
R5	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.66
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.92

suguru ishimaru

27th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nakara Juntavong (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs 嵩小山内 (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

10:90

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Theo T. (Fai) - Expected: 11:89, underdog victory

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs ryo inoue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

90:10

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs hayato kawashima (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Win	✗	0.89	1.36
R4	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.22
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.12
R7	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Marquis Tan

41st • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.5

Diff

10:90

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs John Wang (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

85:15

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 直人三田 (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 86:14

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

10:90

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Anthony O’Hara (Fai) - Expected: 11:89

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Harrison Callahan (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs YIKAI WANG (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

90:10

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs hayato kawashima (Iyslander) - Expected: 91:9

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	85%	Win	✓	0.14	0.06
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Fai	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.14

Hotaka Hashimoto

70th • 1-5-1

86%

Meta

-2.6

Perf

3.1

Surp

0.1

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 裕夢小畑 (Oscilio) - Expected: 76:24

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs sungbin sim (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Manson Hsiau (Briar) - Expected: 59:41

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Draw vs 克夫梅澤 (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs 拓弥橋本 (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ryan Cheong (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oscilio	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Xingyu ZHOU

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nelson Stephen Ventura (Vynnset) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

15:85

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ayaka sato (Dromai) - Expected: 17:83

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	15%	Loss	✗	0.17	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.