Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026 - Oscilio (SAGE)

Oscilio

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Justin Cu

9th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kyoshiro Takegahara (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kuan Li (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs レオン藤倉 (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Aleix Córdoba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Miyaji Kotaro (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.27
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.41
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

suk kyo suh

28th • 4-3-0

86%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.9

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs タカヤスギモト (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 洋介小池 (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs naoki tsuji (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kazuya Murakami (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs TSUNAKI SAWAI (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Yuuki Abo (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R2	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.81
R7	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Naoki Sato

55th • 3-4-0

86%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Tomoko Ishimaru (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yuuki Abo (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs RYUTA NAKADA (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs naoki tsuji (Iyslander) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Takehiro Shibasaki (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Hiroshi Noguchi (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 聡本田 (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.68
R6	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R7	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.47

Saori TOYOIZUMI

58th • 2-5-0

71%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 尚輝町田 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Atsunori Kanamaru (Briar) - Expected: 52:48

20:80

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs 綸太宇野 (Oldhim) - Expected: 36:64

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs LEE JUI-CHI (Chane) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R7	Silver Age	Chane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

三輪佑樹

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Tomotsugu Kikuta (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs ryo sugawara (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs ayaka sato (Dromai) - Expected: 65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs akio harada (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R2	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

裕夢小畑

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.8

Diff

20:80

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Hotaka Hashimoto (Enigma) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Theo T. (Fai) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Kazuhiro Watanabe (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Kaori Ohara (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.