Sunday Showdown: Shinjuku 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Akira Hanada

19th • 5-2-0

57%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Anthony O’Hara (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs QING GUO (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 小林孝 (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs ryo inoue (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs John Wang (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mizuki Takei (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 大和宮脇 (Dash) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.94
R7	Silver Age	Dash	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Chihaya Ishimaru

20th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs 匠哉小島 (Dorinthea) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kohei Sasaki (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs hayato kawashima (Iyslander) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Koumei Kaneko (Boltyn) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Saori TOYOIZUMI (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Tatsuaki Tsuchida (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs suk kyo suh (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R4	Silver Age	Boltyn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Theo T.

21st • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.4

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs 真斗瀬理 (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs 裕夢小畑 (Oscilio) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs suguru ishimaru (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13, favorite upset

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Taishi Naganoma (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 裕貴藤盛 (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kanata Ishimaru (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Ryotarou Yamada (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	Silver Age	Oscilio	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Loss	✓	0.87	-
R4	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.71
R6	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.56
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.24

Tatsuaki Tsuchida

38th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Ryan Cheong (Gravy Bones) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs ゆうひ石丸 (Florian) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Aleix Córdoba (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 47:53

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Yu Cheng Lai (Kassai, Cintari Sellsword) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

65:35

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs 聡本田 (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Chihaya Ishimaru (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 荻原雄生 (Briar) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (3.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Gravy Bones	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R4	Silver Age	Kassai, Cintari Sellsword	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R5	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.47
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.58

John Wang

53rd • 3-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.3

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Marquis Tan (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub Tepper (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs 将貴山田 (Florian) - Expected: 75:25

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs タカヤスギモト (Oldhim) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Akira Hanada (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Tomoyuki Yagura (Kayo, Strong-arm) - Expected: Not enough data (1 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs 小柳元輝 (Blaze, Firemind) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (7/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.18
R4	Silver Age	Oldhim	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo, Strong-arm	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Blaze, Firemind	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Anthony O’Hara

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Akira Hanada (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Ryotarou Yamada (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs PANG CHEN (Dromai) - Expected: 42:58

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Marquis Tan (Enigma) - Expected: 87:13

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Yuuki Abo (Briar) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.50
R3	Silver Age	Dromai	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.74
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.17
R5	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.