National Championship 2026 - Switzerland - Oscilio, Constella Intelligence (CC)

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sebastian Spicher

4th • 7-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.2

Surp

4.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Samuel Carballido (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Kevin Jenni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Gut (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Oliver Gehrig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

67% (6/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (5.1 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.08
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.24
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.24
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.67
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.21
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.43
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.92
R12	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Rafael Boog

16th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Julien Gremion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Mudry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Morard (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Basile Massaly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Samuel Carballido (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 69:31

75:25

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.21
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.72
R9	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-

Markus Heimbeck

17th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Wilhelm Baars (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Thierry Mévillot (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Emil Hofmann (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Jason Morard (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.23
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-

Xavier Mudry

29th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Basile Massaly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Dominik von Allmen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Leonel Torrealba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs André Kofmel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 49:51

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.51	1.56

Niels Rohrer

25th • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Benjamin Küenzi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gautier Laroche (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 67:33

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Frédérick Cognard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Michael Frochaux (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.51
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.