Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026

Arakni, Marionette

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Aaron Heimbeck

19th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs David Muntwyler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ralph Schlauri (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Patrick Jud (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Samuel Carballido (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R3	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.67
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R9	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.93

Dallas Catillaz

31st • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christopher Clark (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Emil Hofmann (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Gabriel Ankeshian (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yoan Falquet (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Benjamin Küenzi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.89

Thomas Mévillot

dropped • 3-1-0

100%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs André Kofmel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Urs Riedweg (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 63:37

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (2.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.64
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.66

Nico Schleier

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Basile Massaly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Yoan Falquet (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Wilhelm Baars

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Markus Heimbeck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Célien Mévillot (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 66:34

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julien Gremion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yoan Falquet (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.