National Championship 2026 - Switzerland - Dorinthea Ironsong (CC)

Dorinthea Ironsong

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Loïc Musy

26th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 55:45

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

85:15

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 87:13

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Andrea Zaffalon (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.07
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.13
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.81
R9	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Benjamin Küenzi

32nd • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thierry Mévillot (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 60:40

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Michael Wachouschek (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Danny Feliz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Dallas Catillaz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.25
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.34	0.30
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Célien Mévillot

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fabio Flammer (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Wilhelm Baars (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 34:66

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Patrik Koller (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 19:81

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.