Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Basile Massaly

7th • 4-3-0

29%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nico Schleier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Rafael Boog (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Gut (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.23
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.78
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.61
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Michael Frochaux

20th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leonel Torrealba (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Samuel Mudry (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jason Morard (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Niels Rohrer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.43
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.61	2.04

Patrick Urfer

dropped • 1-2-1

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Wachouschek (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

15:85

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Loïc Musy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 13:87

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Draw vs Patrick Jud (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ivan Bötschi (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.62

Daja Todesco

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kevin Steiger (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Fabio Flammer (Aurora, Legacy of Tempest) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ivan Bötschi (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35

15:85

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Loïc Musy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Aurora, Legacy of Tempest	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Kevin Jenni

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ivan Bötschi (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marc Invernizzi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Igor Koutzevitch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.16
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.