National Championship 2026 - Switzerland - Fai, Rising Rebellion (CC)

Fai, Rising Rebellion

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Michael Wachouschek

12th • 5-1-0

83%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.1

Surp

4.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Urfer (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Zaffalon (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henri Laigo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Benjamin Küenzi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Maurice Hostettler (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Patrick Jud (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.13
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.03
R8	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.37

Patrick Paitz

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

95:5

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gautier Laroche (Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow) - Expected: 93:7

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Benjamin Küenzi (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dominik von Allmen (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Markus Heimbeck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Hala, Bladesaint of the Vow	95%	Win	✓	0.07	0.02
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.10
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Lisa-Marie Schulte

dropped • 1-4-0

40%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Frochaux (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 39:61

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Henri Laigo (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Loïc Musy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.80
R8	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.