Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2026

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thomas G Jud

28th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Nico Grieco (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jason Morard (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Niels Rohrer (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Emil Hofmann (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Maurice Hostettler (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.35
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Emil Hofmann

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuel Carballido (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Dallas Catillaz (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Markus Heimbeck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs André Kofmel (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.43
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Dominik von Allmen

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Gut (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Julien Gremion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Mudry (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Patrick Paitz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

David Muntwyler

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Aaron Heimbeck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Urs Riedweg (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.