National Championship 2026 - Switzerland - Puffin, Hightail (CC)

Puffin, Hightail

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jason Morard

14th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 58:42

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Thomas G Jud (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rafael Boog (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Michael Frochaux (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Frédérick Cognard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.23
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.57
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.76
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.41
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Andrea Zaffalon

21st • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Jud (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Michael Wachouschek (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Frédérick Cognard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Loïc Musy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Win	✗	0.69	0.28
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.40
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.60
R4	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R9	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Urs Riedweg

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Frédérick Cognard (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs David Muntwyler (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Igor Koutzevitch (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Mévillot (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.34
R3	CC	Dash I/O	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.07
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.