Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty at National Championship

Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Samuel Mudry

2nd • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Yoan Falquet (Olympia, Prized Fighter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Rafael Boog (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Loïc Musy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Michael Frochaux (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

80:20

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Basile Massaly (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Ralph Schlauri (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Olympia, Prized Fighter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.11
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.66
R8	CC	Dash I/O	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.31
R9	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.64
R11	CC	Zyggy Starlight	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Lancelot Errico

8th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.5

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lisa-Marie Schulte (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Patrick Paitz (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Carballido (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Christopher Clark (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Markus Heimbeck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Lars Seebacher (Dash I/O) - Expected: 81:19

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Sebastian Spicher (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.09
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.41
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.46
R10	CC	Dash I/O	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.38
R11	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Patrik Koller

10th • 3-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.1

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Marc Invernizzi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Danny Feliz (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 57:43

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Célien Mévillot (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 81:19

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Julien Gremion (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Oliver Gehrig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

80:20

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 81:19

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.15
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.46
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.46

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.