Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jonas Stoberock

3rd • 6-2-1

56%

Meta

+1.7

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.9

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Roger Braun (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Carsten Reuß (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Draw vs Max Löhe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Marc Teunnissen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Kevin Zänker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

56% (5/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.07
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Win	✗	0.74	0.43
R3	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.09
R10	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.05
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.91
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Bino Nolting

9th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Nica Roth (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Georg Sossnowetz (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Steffen Bauer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Nils Hauck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.11
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.19
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.58
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Win	✗	0.74	1.12
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R9	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.86
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Paul Beese

dropped • 1-5-0

17%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.4

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Benjamin Brüssau (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Peter Bauer (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 31:69

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Christoph Greune (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Fabian Schunn (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

25:75

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Zafri Jeffri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

17% (1/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R4	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R8	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Tobias Reincke

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Linus Albat (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luis Toeffels (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julia Happel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gerret Brunke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

25:75

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Frank Pilchowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.59
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

Andrija Vukicevic

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Pascal Flügel (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 39:61

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Thore Ladicke (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.22
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R4	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Lucas Macorano

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fabian Groß (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jonas Müller (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Schäferling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 60:40

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kevin Gillich (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.34
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.56
R4	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Daniel Brockhage

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 76:24, favorite upset

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Bernd Nielsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 26:74

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Bauer (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	75%	Loss	✓	0.76	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R3	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.