National Championship 2026 - Germany - Arakni, Marionette (CC)

Arakni, Marionette

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nica Roth

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Bino Nolting (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 43:57

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 41:59

80:20

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 79:21

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Felix Buchs (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	80%	Win	✓	0.21	0.25
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Sebastian Gremm

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.4

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alexander Schauer (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nils Hauck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Fabian Groß (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Simon Reuter (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.43
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-

Maximilian Reichl

dropped • 0-4-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mark Duro (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nils Hauck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Luis Toeffels (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.