National Championship 2026 - Germany - Valda, Seismic Impact (CC)

Valda, Seismic Impact

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mark Duro

15th • 4-3-0

43%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Maximilian Reichl (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

20:80

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 20:80

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Christian Hauck (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 35:65

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Mikey Dwyer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.36
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.26
R4	CC	Zyggy Starlight	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.97
R9	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.21

Martynas Norbutas

dropped • 3-2-0

80%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Tom Tydecks (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35

90:10

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alexander Schauer (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 91:9

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Philippe Cabero (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 32:68

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Eleonora Turowski (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.12
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	90%	Win	✓	0.09	0.06
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Christoph Greune

dropped • 2-2-0

25%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Paul Döhrer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Kleiner (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Philipp Schlegel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Paul Beese (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.06
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.67	1.62

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.