National Championship 2026 - Germany - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sebastian Kleiner

25th • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.4

Surp

2.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Enes Findik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Christoph Greune (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paul Döhrer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Peter Bauer (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Christopher Bizau (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Felix Buchs (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andreas Türke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.29
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.57
R8	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.57
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

David Schramm

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.8

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Christian Bach (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Christian Meinzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Felix Krisch (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R4	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Philippe Cabero

dropped • 2-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alexander Heidorn (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rene Hentschel (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Martynas Norbutas (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.23
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Marius Krebs

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.7

Surp

0.2

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Hanno Lünser (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mert Gezgin (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

20:80

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nica Roth (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 21:79

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Fabian Rex (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	20%	Loss	✗	0.21	-
R4	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Leon Schüßler

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gerret Brunke (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Xiaoliang Yang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 53:47

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tom Tydecks (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.