Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2026 - Germany
Puffin, Hightail
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
18th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
3.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Tobias Reincke (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Round 2: Loss vs Stephan Schwarz (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Matthias Kempter (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
25:75
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Paul Döhrer (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Paul Moerler (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Round 9: Win vs Rene Gropp (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 25% | Loss |
| R8 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
30th • 4-3-0
57%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
4.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Yorick Schulte (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marcus Räthe (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andreas Türke (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
85:15
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Maximilian Bültel (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 83:17
Round 8: Win vs Fabian Groß (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 31:69, underdog victory
Round 9: Win vs Laurin Niehues (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Linus Albat (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 85% | Win |
| R8 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Dash I/O | 35% | Win |
| R10 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
26th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.3
Surp
2.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marius Krebs (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Christian Meinzer (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Johannes Janovsky (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Schäferling (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Ricardo Manrique (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Jakob Immer (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Jonas Stoberock (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Win |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Win |
| R8 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
67th • 3-4-0
57%
Meta
-0.5
Perf
3.5
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Laurin Kuschel (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Daniel Brockhage (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Diana Triebnig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
45:55
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Bernd Nielsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Julia Happel (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
57% (4/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Puffin, Hightail | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.