National Championship 2026 - Germany - Katsu, the Wanderer (CC)

Katsu, the Wanderer

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Yorick Schulte

12th • 5-2-0

43%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

3.5

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Güntekin Koc (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 47:53

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Benjamin Brüssau (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 67:33

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Andrija Vukicevic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Finn Kleine (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Jose Ricardo Ordoñez Muller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 47:53

Meta Fit

43% (3/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.65
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.92
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Loss	✗	0.47	-
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.55

Leonardo Bednik

dropped • 3-2-0

40%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.3

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Philipp Schlegel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Linh Tran (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Erik Elberfeld (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Steinle (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Leon Schmidtke (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.46
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R8	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Martin Baur

dropped • 3-1-0

25%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.9

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Toni Schwarze (Zyggy Starlight) - Expected: 47:53

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Kevin Zänker (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Davis Groza (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bernd Nielsen (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Zyggy Starlight	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.27
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.87
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.81

Pascal Flügel

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrija Vukicevic (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 46:54

5:95

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Christian Hauck (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 4:96

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Möller (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 69:31

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Leon Schmidtke (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	5%	Loss	✗	0.04	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.40
R4	CC	Pleiades, Superstar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.