Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2026

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Luiz Bretas

3rd • 6-3-0

33%

Meta

+1.9

Perf

4.6

Surp

4.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Ricardo Albuquerque (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Vítor Farhat Fernandes (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs CAIO ZAMBELLI (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Danrley Lucas (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Heitor Martins (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Izumi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Leonardo Tozato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

35:65

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Raphael Barrese (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.9 Wins (4.1 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.6 total deviation

Difficulty

4.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.12
R2	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.15
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.64
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.95
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R11	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.76
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Guilherme Luersen

13th • 5-2-0

71%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.8

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Phelipe da Hora (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 42:58

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Raniere Aguiar (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Kaina Gimenez (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs João Gabriel Neves (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Luiz Bussolli (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Rafael Miller (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs RODOLPHO ETINGER (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.18
R2	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.49
R8	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.39
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.53

Maurício Tavares

12th • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.2

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Yan Pedroni (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Raphael Gaspar (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 45:55

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Mauricio Yoshioka (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bruno Marconato (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Freitas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Átila Lima (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Luiz Bussolli (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.32
R4	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.39
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.22
R9	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R10	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.38

Joao Gabriel Jagersbacher

dropped • 1-4-0

60%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joao Morato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lucas Izumi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vinicius Borges (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Pedro Gradella (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Henrique Pereira (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.23
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nelson Paes Jr.

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs LUCAS Dias (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michel Verissimo da Silva Luiz (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs RODOLPHO ETINGER (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Leonardo Tozato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Pedro Augusto Mendes de Negreiros

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Henrique De Almeida Carvalho (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rodrigo Canejo (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Raphael Rosa (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.54
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.51
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.