Puffin, Hightail at National Championship 2026

Puffin, Hightail

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Bruno Marconato

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.0

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Feliz (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 23:77, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Marcel Moscatelli (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Leonardo Tozato (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Maurício Tavares (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs None (Unknown)

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	25%	Win	✗	0.77	0.42
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R8	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.60

Gabriel Santos

dropped • 3-1-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs VITOR VANACOR (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Felipe Ciola Marino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 36:64

85:15

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Guilherme Brito silva (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 84:16

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs David Carvalho (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	85%	Win	✓	0.16	0.19
R4	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Win	✗	0.61	1.36

Marcel Moscatelli

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.6

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs João Pedro Mafra Vilasbôas Rodrigues (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Bruno Marconato (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Navarro (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 29:71

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Hugo Maximo (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.18
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.93

Bruno Cebollada

dropped • 1-3-0

25%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs André Rafael Chagas Godoy (Dash I/O) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs GABRIEL LEAL SENA (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vitor Castro (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Darcy Camargo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Rodrigo Canejo

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Evandro Campos (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Daniel Dertoni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 47:53

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pedro Augusto Mendes de Negreiros (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Sr Todo Poderoso Hubert (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.54
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.