Jarl Vetreiði at Calling: Rotterdam 2026

Jarl Vetreiði

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Julien Desuter

26th • 8-4-0

58%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

5.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Lucas Ward (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Konrad Niva (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Felix Albertsmeier (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Bram bertens (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ashkan Rashid-Sanaty (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Alexander Schauer (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Christopher Bizau (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

30:70

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Oliver Spapens (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Juha-Matti Pihlajamäki (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

Meta Fit

58% (7/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (6.4 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

5.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.05
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.34
R4	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R5	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.26
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R7	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.56
R8	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.85
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.53
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R12	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-

James Gray

67th • 7-5-0

83%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

6.2

Surp

3.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jordan Akers (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Philipp Steinfort (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Olivier Imbrechts (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Kevin Gillich (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Preyer (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Arthur Nijssen (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jorgen Fleussu (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Sébastien Spilliaert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

75:25

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Jonny Chapman (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

83% (10/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (6.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

6.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.08
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.13
R4	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.44
R5	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R6	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.58
R8	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.36
R11	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Jonny Chapman

71st • 6-6-0

92%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

5.2

Surp

1.6

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vasilis Kirlis (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alexander Schauer (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Igor Makarev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Tom Burggraaff (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Kilian Schellekens (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Thomas van Dijk (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Enes Findik (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Jasper de Riet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Kevin Jenni (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

92% (11/12 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (7.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

5.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.04
R2	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.20
R6	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.48
R7	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.28
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.42
R9	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R10	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R12	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Noah Cagle

dropped • 6-4-0

40%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

4.7

Surp

3.9

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Dayo Armstrong (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Tim Höpfner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Rik Godschalk (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Cyprien Lagalie (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 27:73

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Gilles De Vylder (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Jasper de Riet (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

40% (4/10 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

4.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.06
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.29
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R5	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	30%	Win	✗	0.71	0.90
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.68
R7	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.07
R8	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.90
R10	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Arthur Nijssen

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Philipp Schlegel (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daan Heister (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

75:25

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Jordy Van Eijk (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Linus Albat (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

45:55

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Sébastien Spilliaert (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs James Gray (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.15
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.74
R4	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.25
R5	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.31
R6	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Daniel Mulato

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Petter Olsson (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Stijn Borkelmans (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Brodie Spurlock (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Sebastian Christofzik (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 69:31

65:35

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Shane Steinert (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs Jirka Ilomäki (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs René Rosenberg (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.22
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.30
R5	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.45
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Jirka Ilomäki

dropped • 4-3-0

71%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.7

Surp

3.0

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Melvin Valderrey (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Koksch (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Adam Ray (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Alain Dang (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R6 CC

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

30:70

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Yannick Machiels (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.07
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R4	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	30%	Win	✗	0.70	0.99
R5	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.31
R6	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.66

Justin Kruft

dropped • 3-4-0

57%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.5

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Isaac Murray (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Ype Beuk (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jason Huylebroeck (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Tim Heibrok (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ruben Costers (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 CC

Round 6: Win vs jens van santberghe (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Hanno Lünser (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 39:61

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.19
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R4	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.69
R6	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.61
R7	CC	Puffin, Hightail	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-

Dale Mushinski

dropped • 2-4-1

71%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Johannes Schorpp (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Julien Erdreich (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Nathan Eastwood (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 33:67

55:45

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Billy van Zaal (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 56:44

65:35

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs Michael Klitzsch (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 65:35

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Dayo Armstrong (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-
R5	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.60
R6	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-
R7	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.56

Michael de Kaste

dropped • 1-5-1

71%

Meta

-2.5

Perf

3.2

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Kamil "Kaka" Żerek (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Léo Toulouse (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Robin Deceuninck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Maxence Cornut (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

70:30

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Romain Lambert (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

35:65

R6 CC

Round 6: Draw vs ruben dehenau (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 35:65

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Dominic Rodgers (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Underhanded Cheat	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.36
R5	CC	Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R6	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	35%	Draw	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Didier Deurloo

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Shane Steinert (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcus Rosemin (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Johannes Janovsky (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 27:73

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Eric Steuer (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.13
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Julian Cappallo

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Laurens Van der Beek (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Sebastian Linn (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Stefania Patsou (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

30:70

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kim Scheerer (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Valda, Seismic Impact	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.38
R4	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-

Remco Baal

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Felix Hoenighausen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 74:26

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jakub Nowicki (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Laurent Michaud (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 64:36

30:70

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Adrián Marín (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Ivo Malcenieks (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.09
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.38
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-

Sacha Evrard

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.7

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Robin Deceuninck (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Jacob Clements (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rob Catton (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

45:55

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Finn Kleine (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 46:54

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Martin Holík (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.45
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	45%	Loss	✗	0.46	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.