Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
dropped • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+1.9
Perf
3.3
Surp
4.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Rob Thoen (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68
Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81
Round 4: Win vs Jasper Lagendijk (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
20:80
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Tobias Koch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81
Round 6: Win vs stef van oort (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Alan Williams (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R5 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 20% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Win |
| R7 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
14%
Meta
+1.5
Perf
2.9
Surp
4.8
Diff
20:80
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Konrad Weiss (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Kilian Schellekens (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tobias Koch (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81
Round 4: Win vs Niklas Schulte Osthoff (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 11:89, underdog victory
10:90
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Jordi Prins (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 11:89
Round 6: Win vs David Burghoff (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79, underdog victory
R7
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Romain Lambert (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 10% | Win |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 10% | Loss |
| R6 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Win |
| R7 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
dropped • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
3.8
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
15:85
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alex Chițu (Dash I/O) - Expected: 15:85
65:35
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Dale Mushinski (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 67:33
Round 5: Win vs Louis Van Keymeulen (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 6: Loss vs Job de Vries (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Round 7: Win vs FREDERIC MOUTARDIER (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 15% | Loss |
| R4 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Win |
| R5 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Win |
| R6 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 20% | Win |
dropped • 2-5-0
29%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
10:90
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs nino Zimmermann (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 11:89
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 50:50
20:80
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lukas Woitaschik (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
20:80
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Dan Moldovan (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 19:81
15:85
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Igor Makarev (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 14:86
R6
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Lukas Thurow (Pleiades, Superstar) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)
15:85
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Diana Triebnig (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 14:86
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 10% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Huntsman | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R4 | Fai, Rising Rebellion | 20% | Loss |
| R5 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 15% | Loss |
| R6 | Pleiades, Superstar | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 15% | Loss |
dropped • 0-4-0
25%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Eric Kyborg (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 45:55
20:80
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rok Havlas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 21:79
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Sebastian Christofzik (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 36:64
R4
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Viktor Sojka (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
Meta Fit
25% (1/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 20% | Loss |
| R3 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Sam Cornelis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 32:68
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Virginia Rosenberg (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)
Round 3: Loss vs Christoph Korzeniewski (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.