Fai, Rising Rebellion
10 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
15th • 9-3-0
42%
Meta
+3.2
Perf
5.7
Surp
5.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lucas Michel (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Niels Debosschere (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 65:35
75:25
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs nino Zimmermann (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27
Round 5: Win vs Felix Krisch (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Noah Dreckmann (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Philipp Steinfort (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Florian Koksch (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Tom Escoffier (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs René Rosenberg (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
40:60
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Meta Fit
42% (5/12 favorable matchups)
Performance
+3.2 Wins (5.8 expected, 9 actual)
Surprise
5.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Win |
| R4 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 75% | Win |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R10 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.7
Surp
0.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Cedric Leuzinger (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Niklas Schulte Osthoff (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 81:19
80:20
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Niels Vos (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 81:19
65:35
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Daja Todesco (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36
Round 6: Loss vs Sander Neeft (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Correas (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (4.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 80% | Win |
| R5 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R6 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 4-3-0
14%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
3.5
Surp
2.3
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Mathis Reteuna (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Julian Cappallo (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs Sam Paulissen (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Marcus Wystub (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
14% (1/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R4 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Katsu, the Wanderer | 40% | Win |
dropped • 4-3-0
43%
Meta
+0.1
Perf
2.6
Surp
1.7
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Killian Allouard (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Mihai Zorila (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60
80:20
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jasper Meulenkamp (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 81:19
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Win vs Sander Deceuninck (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
80:20
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Wouter Ouwehand (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 81:19
60:40
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Julien Erdreich (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 60:40
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Jason Rolfe (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 80% | Win |
| R4 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Win |
| R5 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 80% | Win |
| R6 | Arakni, Huntsman | 60% | Win |
| R7 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 2-5-0
43%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jasper Lagendijk (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Donovan van Beek (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
45:55
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs ruben dehenau (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 47:53
75:25
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Niklas Schulte Osthoff (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27
55:45
R6 CC
Round 6: Win vs Cedric Leuzinger (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Antoine BEUCHER (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Jarl Vetreiði | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R4 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 45% | Loss |
| R5 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 75% | Win |
| R6 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-6-0
43%
Meta
-2.7
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.1
Diff
75:25
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Jordi Prins (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: 73:27
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Eric Kyborg (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 43:57
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Alessio Bouko (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Friedemann Schorpp (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 33:67
45:55
R5 CC
Round 5: Loss vs stef van oort (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
50:50
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Manon Godet (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50
Round 7: Loss vs Nathan Eastwood (Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate | 75% | Win |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R4 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 35% | Loss |
| R5 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Loss |
| R6 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Tuffnut, Bumbling Hulkster | 80% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
17%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.4
Surp
2.2
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Declan Patrick (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs David Moore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 38:62
Round 3: Win vs Sam Cornelis (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
Round 4: Loss vs Timo Cullmann (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 5: Win vs Gaël Dorckel (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
40:60
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs Umut Kayan (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
2.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R4 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
| R5 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
dropped • 3-3-0
0%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
2.9
Surp
1.7
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andreas Kaiser (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 45:55
Round 2: Win vs Wolfgang Mahl (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Moore (Valda, Seismic Impact) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R4 CC
Round 4: Loss vs Adrien Druart (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
40:60
R5 CC
Round 5: Win vs Fernando García-casarrubios (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58
35:65
R6 CC
Round 6: Loss vs David Rotter (Dash I/O) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
0% (0/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (2.4 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 45% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Valda, Seismic Impact | 40% | Loss |
| R4 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
| R5 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R6 | Dash I/O | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
33%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.5
Surp
1.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stevie Van Overtveldt (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 56:44
Round 2: Win vs Billy van Zaal (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Declan Patrick (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 28:72
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Puffin, Hightail | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
33%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Richard Schröder (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 34:66
Round 2: Loss vs Jakob Indra (Kayo, Underhanded Cheat) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
40:60
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Christoph Munzig (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
33% (1/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Kayo, Underhanded Cheat | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.