Dorinthea Ironsong at Pro Tour: Yokohama 2026

Dorinthea Ironsong

15 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mok Marcus

95th • 5-4-0

78%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.4

Surp

3.8

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Molho (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Porter Boroski (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Tuomas Kainulainen (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Ryu San jose (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Tim Dasiukevich (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Tim Coates (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Emanuel Corps-Ortiz (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

75:25

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Ben Thomas (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26, favorite upset

55:45

R15 CC

Round 15: Win vs Jun Loong Wong (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

78% (7/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.22
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.14
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.56
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R13	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R14	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Loss	✓	0.74	-
R15	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.50

Lucas RUZAFA

115th • 2-7-0

22%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.4

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Muus (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Abdurrahman Putra (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Henrique Gouvêa (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Wesley Dong (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Law Wen (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Marek Meyer (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

25:75

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Matthew Dilks (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 27:73

10:90

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Nathanael Hunt (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

40:60

R15 CC

Round 15: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

22% (2/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.08
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.30
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R14	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R15	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Tim Coates

dropped • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

1.0

Diff

75:25

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Luke Manship (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andre Ryan See (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs takahiro nishimura (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Laksana Eka S.P. (Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

10:90

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Damien Riggins (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

50:50

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Mok Marcus (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R13 CC

Round 13: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R14 CC

Round 14: Loss vs Bryce Miller-Booker (Katsu, the Wanderer) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.05
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.11
R3	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.29
R4	CC	Teklovossen, Esteemed Magnate	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R13	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R14	CC	Katsu, the Wanderer	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Douglas Levy

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.1

Surp

1.7

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Dennis Zhang (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joseph Sierra (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs yohei ohki (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Gaia Enomoto (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Ryan Youngquist (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.72
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Joseph Sierra

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.8

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Giani Gabriel Dinu (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Douglas Levy (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Battaglia (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

65:35

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Yuanji Li (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

75:25

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Dylan Tucker (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.40
R3	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R4	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R5	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.38

Marsha Ho

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

25:75

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Guillermo Vergara Vazquez (Arakni, Huntsman) - Expected: 27:73

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Eduardo Melo (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Muhidin Grosonja (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Philippe Thai (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Christopher Iaali (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, Huntsman	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.70
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.72
R5	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Okamoto Natsuki

dropped • 2-3-0

20%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Peng Joon (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 10:90, underdog victory

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Peter Bråss (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Hao-Han Chuang (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Steven Young (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

20% (1/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (1.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Win	✗	0.90	0.66
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R4	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Phitchaya Tungpavitaya

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.2

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs David Brannen (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs 尚規石坂 (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nathan Eastwood (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Dusk Low (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Hiroki Saito (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.78
R5	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Ruairidh Wasson

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Steven Leyva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Carlo Ople (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Hayden Jeanson (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Esmond Heng (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Win vs Jacob Hyde (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.17
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.98

Yuto Suzuki

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Masaki Hamada (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michael Feng (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Khoi Dinh (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

50:50

R4 CC

Round 4: Win vs Alexis VALENTIN (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

40:60

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Kevin Murphy (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (1.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.20
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.78
R5	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Nicholas Tan (Nickay)

dropped • 1-4-0

80%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Omeid Vadipour (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Russell Howse (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Luke Murphy (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 60:40

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Ethan Maher (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

50:50

R5 CC

Round 5: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	75%	Loss	✓	0.77	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.44
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R5	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Raymond Griffin

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Angove (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lee Ming-Han (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Yutaro Yamada (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

60:40

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Kai Young Tan (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.58
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Chih Wei Huang

dropped • 0-4-0

25%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Matt Rogers (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Shawn Dhaliwal (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 42:58

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Jordan Jalbert-Ross (Dash I/O) - Expected: 54:46

40:60

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs song kyunghwan (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

25% (1/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R3	CC	Dash I/O	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R4	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

logan boyd

dropped • 0-4-0

Meta

-0.7

Perf

0.7

Surp

0.0

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Phillip Spader (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 41:59

10:90

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mat Himmelman (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

10:90

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matthias Verbeeck (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

10:90

R4 CC

Round 4: Loss vs Paul Barthonnet (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 11:89

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (0.7 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.7 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-
R4	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	10%	Loss	✗	0.11	-

Christian Johnsen

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

10:90

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Austin Kim (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 10:90

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs MASAYA IWASAKI (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Zachary Adams (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	10%	Loss	✗	0.10	-
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.