Showdown: Toulouse 2026 - Valda Brightaxe (SAGE)

Valda Brightaxe

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Martynas Norbutas

24th • 5-3-0

38%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.1

Surp

1.9

Diff

15:85

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Eric Lohéac (Azalea) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Sergio Tizón Molina (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Valin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

38% (3/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.44
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.60
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.26
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Richard Carr

30th • 5-3-0

62%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jason Rolfe (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas Valin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Mickael LEFEBVRE (Briar) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs issane houachem (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mark Henderson (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.05
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.36
R8	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Corto Bastien

70th • 3-5-0

62%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.9

Surp

1.1

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Peytavy (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs therry HOMEDES (Dorinthea) - Expected: 19:81, underdog victory

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Maximilian Bültel (Dromai) - Expected: 76:24

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 43:57

75:25

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nabil Amri (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Lucas Portal (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 44:56

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Antoine Muller (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Win	✗	0.81	0.60
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.20
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.31
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Jules Lefrère

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Jānis Liepiņš-Keišs (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

80:20

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Renaud Bourgogne (Vynnset) - Expected: 81:19

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Frank CLEMENT (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.60
R4	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-

Lucas Bourgogne

dropped • 1-2-1

75%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Joris Masson (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nabil Amri (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Iyslander) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Draw	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Win	✗	0.58	1.24

Mathieu LAGUERRE

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Rony MOYAL (Florian) - Expected: 51:49

75:25

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Kayo) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

15:85

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Kano) - Expected: 13:87

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	15%	Loss	✗	0.13	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.