Florian at Showdown: Toulouse 2026

Florian

10 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Thomas Peytavy

12th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.9

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Corto Bastien (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Briar) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Vincent Loreau (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lasnier Richard (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

75:25

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Briar	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.46
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.80
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R8	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.40

Yorgos Samaras

17th • 6-2-0

75%

Meta

+2.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.6

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Cyril LEROUX (Oldhim) - Expected: 83:17

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Theo Mussy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jules Lefrère (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Matthew Brown (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Oldhim	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.30
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.51
R5	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R6	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.93
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Nicolas ROUBINET

27th • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Declan Patrick (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Sergio Tizón Molina (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Portal (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Samed Demir (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Axel Jan Mahamad (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

65:35

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.15
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.23
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.54
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Damien LASSARA

63rd • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

10:90

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 12:88

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Louis Angilbert (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs steve thiebaut (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

100:0

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Paul SEBBAN (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Draw vs Lucas Portal (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs YOAN RONDINEAU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	Silver Age	Kano	10%	Loss	✗	0.12	-
R3	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Draw	✓	0.65	-
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.07

Rony MOYAL

49th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Mathieu LAGUERRE (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mikael GARCIA (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Antoine Pech (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Vincent Loreau (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Antoine Muller (Olympia) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

25:75

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Adrien Bersier (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R4	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R7	Silver Age	Olympia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-

Jānis Liepiņš-Keišs

71st • 3-5-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

3.5

Surp

1.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Jules Lefrère (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Demetrio Bori (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mikael GARCIA (Levia) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60

75:25

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Stéphane Russo (Dorinthea) - Expected: 76:24

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Axel Jan Mahamad (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Levia	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R5	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	75%	Win	✓	0.24	0.35
R8	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Joris Masson

74th • 2-5-1

50%

Meta

-2.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.5

Diff

65:35

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs mickael assemat (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Draw vs Lucas Bourgogne (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Gaël Dorckel (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Adrien Bersier (Iyslander) - Expected: 24:76

25:75

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Clément Py (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

100:0

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Paul SEBBAN (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Saguer Olivier (Lexi) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Clément Mazeau (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	50%	Draw	✓	0.49	-
R3	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R5	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R6	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R7	Silver Age	Lexi	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Hugo Severin

dropped • 2-5-0

57%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.5

Surp

0.5

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Geoffroy Lafontaine (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

100:0

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Paul SEBBAN (Riptide) - Expected: 100:0

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Christian Franco (Vynnset) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Manuel Wachouschek (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs steve thiebaut (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

25:75

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Maximilian Bültel (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Antoine Delaval (Kayo) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-
R2	Silver Age	Riptide	100%	Win	✓	0.00	-
R3	Silver Age	Vynnset	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.52
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R6	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-

Matteo Megera

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.3

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Frank CLEMENT (Enigma) - Expected: 23:77

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Clément Mazeau (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 65:35

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Antoine Pech (Dash) - Expected: 59:41

25:75

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Emile Simon (Fai) - Expected: 26:74

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Enigma	25%	Loss	✗	0.23	-
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R3	Silver Age	Dash	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	25%	Loss	✗	0.26	-

David Muntwyler

dropped • 0-1-0

Meta

-0.3

Perf

0.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

25:75

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Corentin Guillemot (Dromai) - Expected: 27:73

Meta Fit

0% (0/1 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (0.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.