Bravo, Flattering Showman at Showdown: Toulouse 2026

Bravo, Flattering Showman

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Sergio Bravo Aranda

9th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

3.5

Surp

2.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Renaud Bourgogne (Vynnset) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Samed Demir (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Clément Py (Enigma) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas PIROTH (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Quentin Aubel (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Matthew Brown (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Vynnset	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.48
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.45
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.63
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Andrew Rayner

32nd • 5-3-0

100%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Samed Demir (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Cyril LEROUX (Oldhim) - Expected: 48:52

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas PIROTH (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Dario Olibet (Fai) - Expected: 61:39

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Louis Angilbert (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs remy Reynaud (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lasnier Richard (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Michael Jaszczur (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Oldhim	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.27
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.36
R5	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.86
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Alexandre Lebec

34th • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Frederik Pedersen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

25:75

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Antoine Muller (Olympia) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Mickael LEFEBVRE (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Nicolas ROUBINET (Florian) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs remy Reynaud (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Olympia	25%	Win	✗	0.73	0.48
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R4	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.91
R5	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.52
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.99

Sergio Tizón Molina

39th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.8

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Paul SEBBAN (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas ROUBINET (Florian) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Martynas Norbutas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Sherish Chowhari (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs mickael assemat (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Mathieu Isorce (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

95:5

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Maximilian Bültel (Dromai) - Expected: 94:6

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Dromai	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.09

Lucas Portal

61st • 4-3-1

75%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

3.8

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Léo Solivérès (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Mickael LEFEBVRE (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nicolas ROUBINET (Florian) - Expected: 37:63

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Steve BRIQUET (Vynnset) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mathieu Isorce (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Draw vs Damien LASSARA (Florian) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Corto Bastien (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 61:39

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar) - Expected: 48:52

Meta Fit

75% (6/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Vynnset	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Draw	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.63
R8	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Win	✓	0.52	1.05

Mickael ROUSSEL

75th • 2-5-1

100%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.1

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas PIROTH (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Faustin Falissard (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Paul SEBBAN (Riptide) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Théo Lamour (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stefan Karlsson (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Briar) - Expected: 56:44

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Draw vs Louis Angilbert (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Viktor Nelipovich (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.49
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.62
R7	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Draw	✓	0.50	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Clément Mazeau

79th • 2-6-0

50%

Meta

-2.0

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.8

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Urs Riedweg (Kano) - Expected: 28:72

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Megera (Florian) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Noa Loisy (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Lexi) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Vincent Fasquel (Iyslander) - Expected: 40:60

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Eric Lohéac (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Dario Olibet (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Joris Masson (Florian) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Loss	✗	0.28	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R5	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R8	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.45

mickael assemat

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Joris Masson (Florian) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs issane houachem (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Geoffrey Chen (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sergio Tizón Molina (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Viktor Nelipovich (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Adrien Bersier (Iyslander) - Expected: 40:60

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.21
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R3	Silver Age	Nuu	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.56
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.85
R7	Silver Age	Iyslander	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-

Florian Bouteyron

dropped • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.3

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

30:70

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Nuno Amaral (Kano) - Expected: 28:72, underdog victory

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Samed Demir (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Quentin Aubel (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Alexandre MENAGE (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kano	30%	Win	✗	0.72	0.61
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R4	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.82
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Léo Solivérès

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.4

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Lucas Portal (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 56:44

70:30

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Eric Lohéac (Azalea) - Expected: 70:30

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pierre Rebeyrol (Lexi) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.39
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	65%	Loss	✓	0.62	-

Machi C

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.3

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Louis Angilbert (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (4 matches)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 50:50

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Fai) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Loss	✓	0.61	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.