Kano at Showdown: Toulouse 2026

Kano

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Juan Chacon

2nd • 8-1-0

33%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

4.8

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Thomas PIROTH (Azalea) - Expected: 69:31

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs issane houachem (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Lucas Dutailly (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Manuel Wachouschek (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Angelo Zaccardi (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Win vs Samed Demir (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (3/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.02
R2	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Win	✓	0.31	0.12
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.66
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.79
R7	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.65
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.05
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.18

Nuno Amaral

26th • 5-3-0

25%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

4.4

Surp

2.9

Diff

45:55

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

70:30

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Emile Simon (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Mathieu Isorce (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Tom Cizabuiroz (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

40:60

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

45:55

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Jean Luka Zorko (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Mickael LEFEBVRE (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.4 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-
R3	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.43
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.59
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.74
R6	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.03
R8	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Lancelot Errico

dropped • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

2.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Thomas Valin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Briar) - Expected: 53:47

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Vynnset) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Axel Jan Mahamad (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-
R1	Silver Age	Briar	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.35
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R4	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Daniel Mulato

dropped • 2-3-0

40%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

2.3

Surp

1.0

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sherish Chowhari (Azalea) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

85:15

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Mathieu LAGUERRE (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 87:13

45:55

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Adrien Saussey (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Elliot Bessède (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

40% (2/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Azalea	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	85%	Win	✓	0.13	0.12
R4	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.55	0.91
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

VALENTIN MARIGNAC

dropped • 2-2-0

75%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.0

Surp

1.1

Diff

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Marc Germond (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

90:10

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Damien LASSARA (Florian) - Expected: 88:12

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs YOAN RONDINEAU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

70:30

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Alexandre Lebec (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Florian	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.09
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Win	✗	0.62	1.06
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Loss	✓	0.72	-

Robert Szary

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs therry HOMEDES (Dorinthea) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Geoffroy Lafontaine (Fai) - Expected: 45:55

45:55

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dorinthea	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Urs Riedweg

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Clément Mazeau (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 72:28

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Vincent Loreau (Kayo) - Expected: 44:56

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Axel Jan Mahamad (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (8 matches)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.16
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.