Showdown: Toulouse 2026 - Vynnset (SAGE)

Vynnset

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Léo Baty

5th • 8-1-0

89%

Meta

+3.2

Perf

4.3

Surp

3.6

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Steve BRIQUET (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Maxime Andreau (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Michael Jaszczur (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

45:55

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Geoffroy Lafontaine (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Samed Demir (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

89% (8/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+3.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 8 actual)

Surprise

4.3 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.38
R5	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.67
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.66
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.75
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Pierre-Yves Garcia

38th • 5-3-0

88%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

4.1

Surp

2.9

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Lancelot Errico (Kano) - Expected: 52:48

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Viktor Nelipovich (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Li (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Anthony Jeannot (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Steve BRIQUET (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Elliot Bessède (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (4.3 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

2.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kano	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.32
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.53
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Win	✗	0.57	1.20

Stefan Dyjak

48th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.4

Perf

3.6

Surp

1.6

Diff

70:30

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Antoine Pech (Dash) - Expected: 70:30

45:55

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Ethan Moraine (Fai) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Anthony Jeannot (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Viktor Nelipovich (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

60:40

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs YOAN RONDINEAU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Matthew Brown (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Demetrio Bori (Lexi) - Expected: Not enough data (7 matches)

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.4 Wins (4.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dash	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.06
R2	Silver Age	Fai	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.48
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Steve BRIQUET

dropped • 3-4-0

71%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

3.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Robert Catling (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Léo Baty (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Adrien Bersier (Iyslander) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lucas Portal (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory

20:80

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 20:80

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Vynnset) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Maximilian Bültel (Dromai) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)

Meta Fit

71% (5/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.25
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Win	✗	0.71	1.03
R5	Silver Age	Dorinthea	20%	Loss	✗	0.20	-
R6	Silver Age	Vynnset	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Renaud Bourgogne

dropped • 1-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

30:70

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 29:71

20:80

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Jules Lefrère (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 19:81

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Robert Catling (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	20%	Loss	✗	0.19	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.64
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Christian Franco

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar) - Expected: 50:50

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stefan Karlsson (Kayo) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Hugo Severin (Florian) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Rhinar	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.57
R3	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.