Showdown: Toulouse 2026 - Ira, Crimson Haze (SAGE)

Ira, Crimson Haze

11 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Anton Cid Mejias

5th • 7-2-0

100%

Meta

+2.2

Perf

4.2

Surp

3.0

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Vincent Fasquel (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Alexandre Lebec (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matthew Foulkes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Bastien LAVIGNON (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Nuno Amaral (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

60:40

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Lucas Ward (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R9 SAGE

Round 9: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (9/9 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 7 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.11
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.22
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.45
R7	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.57
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.88
R9	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Víctor Sánchez Parrondo

11th • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs remy Reynaud (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs YOAN RONDINEAU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Richard Carr (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Jeremy Miller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Angelo Zaccardi (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Demetrio Bori (Lexi) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Sammy Weckx (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Martynas Norbutas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.31
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.55
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

Matthew Foulkes

14th • 6-2-0

88%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.6

Surp

2.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Adrien Saussey (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Lucas Ward (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

85:15

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Corentin Guillemot (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Richard Carr (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (4.7 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.21
R3	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.28
R4	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.17
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Loss	✓	0.64	-
R7	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.11
R8	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.82

Paul Barthonnet

21st • 6-2-0

100%

Meta

+1.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

3.6

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

95:5

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Yohann Jouanny (Nuu) - Expected: 94:6

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Emmanuel Boissard (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs therry HOMEDES (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Philippe DURET (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Pierrick Dubos (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Vincent Loreau (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (8/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.4 Wins (4.6 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	Silver Age	Nuu	95%	Win	✓	0.06	0.02
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R4	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.33
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.62
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.74
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.86
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.99

Stefania Anitei

47th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

4.1

Surp

1.8

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Dario Olibet (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Maxime Andreau (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Damien ROUBINET (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thomas Peytavy (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Corto Bastien (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

55:45

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

60:40

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Gaël Dorckel (Lexi) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (4.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.1 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Win	✗	0.66	0.58
R4	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.51
R6	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.65
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R8	Silver Age	Lexi	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Thomas Valin

55th • 4-4-0

88%

Meta

-0.3

Perf

3.7

Surp

1.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Kano) - Expected: 62:38

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Richard Carr (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Bidinger Mikael (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Martynas Norbutas (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Mark Henderson (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Stéphane Russo (Dorinthea) - Expected: 64:36

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Damien ROUBINET (Riptide) - Expected: 34:66

Meta Fit

88% (7/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.3 Wins (4.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Win	✓	0.38	0.09
R2	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.38
R4	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R6	Silver Age	Dorinthea	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.49
R7	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.75
R8	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-

YOAN RONDINEAU

dropped • 2-5-0

86%

Meta

-1.9

Perf

3.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Víctor Sánchez Parrondo (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs VALENTIN MARIGNAC (Kano) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset

85:15

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Escande (Dromai) - Expected: 83:17

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Xavier laperrouze (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Damien LASSARA (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.9 Wins (3.9 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.14
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Kano	60%	Loss	✓	0.62	-
R4	Silver Age	Dromai	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.15
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R6	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R7	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Philippe DURET

dropped • 2-3-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.4

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Emile Simon (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Xavier laperrouze (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs steve thiebaut (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Paul Barthonnet (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (5/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.15
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.59
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R5	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Theo Mussy

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.2

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.2

Diff

60:40

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Noa Loisy (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Yorgos Samaras (Florian) - Expected: 56:44

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Pierrick Dubos (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Florian	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-
R3	Silver Age	Rhinar	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Bidinger Mikael

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.3

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Edouard Verrier (Iyslander) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Tom Cizabuiroz (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Thomas Valin (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Iyslander	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.32
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nicolas BROSSE

dropped • 1-2-0

100%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs YOAN RONDINEAU (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Noa Loisy (Fai) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Kayo) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

100% (3/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.49
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.