Showdown: Toulouse 2026 - Fai (SAGE)

Fai

14 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lucas Ward

23rd • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.5

Diff

85:15

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Antoine Delaval (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

90:10

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thomas Gaumard (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

75:25

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Yorgos Samaras (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Anton Cid Mejias (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (4.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R4	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.09
R5	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.27
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R8	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Leonardo Giuliano

41st • 5-3-0

50%

Meta

+1.5

Perf

4.0

Surp

3.8

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Elliot Bessède (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Guillaume Ricros (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Frederik Pedersen (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Thibault Taccone (Briar) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Lancelot Errico (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Daniel Li (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Faustin Falissard (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Win	✗	0.65	0.75
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.25
R8	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00

Lucas Dutailly

45th • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

4.2

Surp

2.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Alexandre MENAGE (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Quentin Aubel (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Machi C (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Juan Chacon (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Emmanuel Boissard (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

50:50

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Lucas Ward (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.18
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.50
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.44
R5	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.89
R6	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Elliot Bessède

50th • 4-4-0

62%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

4.0

Surp

1.9

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Michael Feng (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Jeremy Miller (Dorinthea) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Daniel Mulato (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Mickael LEFEBVRE (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Axel Jan Mahamad (Lyath Goldmane) - Expected: Not enough data (9 matches)

55:45

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Pierre-Yves Garcia (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

62% (5/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

4.0 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.36
R3	Silver Age	Dorinthea	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R5	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.54
R6	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	Silver Age	Lyath Goldmane	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.88
R8	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

issane houachem

68th • 3-5-0

50%

Meta

-0.8

Perf

4.2

Surp

1.4

Diff

50:50

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Florian Escande (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs mickael assemat (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Juan Chacon (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

50:50

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Demetrio Bori (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Richard Carr (Valda Brightaxe) - Expected: 39:61

45:55

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Antoine Pech (Dash) - Expected: 43:57

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Baptiste Schmittlin (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Xavier laperrouze (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.8 Wins (3.8 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

4.2 total deviation

Difficulty

1.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.13
R2	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R5	Silver Age	Valda Brightaxe	40%	Loss	✗	0.39	-
R6	Silver Age	Dash	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.92
R7	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Dario Olibet

76th • 2-6-0

25%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.8

Surp

1.7

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Stefania Anitei (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs steve thiebaut (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Antoine Cordier (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Andrew Rayner (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Beslan Tatayev (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Geoffrey Chen (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Win vs Clément Mazeau (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

R8 SAGE

Round 8: Loss vs Louis Angilbert (Zen) - Expected: Not enough data (2 matches)

Meta Fit

25% (2/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.54
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.17
R8	Silver Age	Zen	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Ethan Moraine

dropped • 4-3-0

57%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Nabil Amri (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Stefan Dyjak (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Xavier Aubert (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

80:20

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Frank CLEMENT (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Demetrio Bori (Lexi) - Expected: 50:50

85:15

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Win vs Kinga Piper Balázs (Arakni, Web of Deceit) - Expected: 85:15

35:65

R7 SAGE

Round 7: Loss vs Mickael LEFEBVRE (Briar) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

57% (4/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (3.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.20
R2	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.24
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.17
R5	Silver Age	Lexi	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R6	Silver Age	Arakni, Web of Deceit	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.21
R7	Silver Age	Briar	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Geoffroy Lafontaine

dropped • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

1.5

Diff

75:25

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Hugo Severin (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

55:45

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Robert Szary (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

80:20

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Frank CLEMENT (Enigma) - Expected: 82:18

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Lasnier Richard (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

55:45

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Léo Baty (Vynnset) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Jacob Clements (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.07
R2	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Win	✓	0.45	0.29
R3	Silver Age	Enigma	80%	Win	✓	0.18	0.14
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.95
R5	Silver Age	Vynnset	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Quentin Aubel

dropped • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.3

Diff

90:10

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Win vs Yohann Jouanny (Nuu) - Expected: 88:12

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Lucas Dutailly (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Stephane GANGLOFF (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Florian Bouteyron (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

40:60

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Sergio Bravo Aranda (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60

35:65

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Emmanuel Boissard (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Nuu	90%	Win	✓	0.12	0.03
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	0.89
R5	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R6	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Beslan Tatayev

dropped • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.2

Diff

55:45

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Nuno Amaral (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

35:65

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Viktor Nelipovich (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

35:65

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Pierrick Dubos (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Edouard Verrier (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

50:50

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Win vs Dario Olibet (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R6 SAGE

Round 6: Loss vs Florian Grabenstein (Rhinar) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R2	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R4	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.42
R5	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.83
R6	Silver Age	Rhinar	70%	Loss	✓	0.69	-

Emile Simon

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.6

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Philippe DURET (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

65:35

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Win vs Edouard Verrier (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Loss vs Nuno Amaral (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

75:25

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Win vs Matteo Megera (Florian) - Expected: 74:26

35:65

R5 SAGE

Round 5: Loss vs Damien ROUBINET (Riptide) - Expected: 35:65

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.25
R3	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R4	Silver Age	Florian	75%	Win	✓	0.26	0.34
R5	Silver Age	Riptide	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-

Adrien Saussey

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.8

Surp

0.5

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Matthew Foulkes (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Florian Escande (Dromai) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Edouard Verrier (Iyslander) - Expected: 65:35

55:45

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Kano) - Expected: 55:45

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Dromai	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	Silver Age	Iyslander	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.47
R4	Silver Age	Kano	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-

Noa Loisy

dropped • 1-3-0

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.8

Surp

1.0

Diff

40:60

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Theo Mussy (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Nicolas BROSSE (Ira, Crimson Haze) - Expected: 40:60

40:60

R3 SAGE

Round 3: Win vs Clément Mazeau (Bravo, Flattering Showman) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory

35:65

R4 SAGE

Round 4: Loss vs Thorbjørn Lind Jensen (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

0% (0/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R2	Silver Age	Ira, Crimson Haze	40%	Loss	✗	0.40	-
R3	Silver Age	Bravo, Flattering Showman	40%	Win	✗	0.60	1.00
R4	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Guillaume Ricros

dropped • 0-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.9

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.0

Diff

35:65

R1 SAGE

Round 1: Loss vs Vincent Loreau (Kayo) - Expected: 37:63

50:50

R2 SAGE

Round 2: Loss vs Leonardo Giuliano (Fai) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (1/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.9 Wins (0.9 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	Silver Age	Kayo	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	Silver Age	Fai	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.