Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2025 - Italy
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
5th • 3-4-0
43%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.0
Surp
3.3
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs frnacesco frigieri (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Leoluca Colletti (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Round 11: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
30:70
R13 CC
Round 13: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
43% (3/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
| R13 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
15th • 4-2-0
100%
Meta
+0.4
Perf
2.5
Surp
3.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 50:50
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Win |
10th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
4.4
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Davide Ricci (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Leonardo Eterni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 10: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23, favorite upset
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Round 12: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Loss |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
27th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
+0.3
Perf
3.1
Surp
5.6
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Loss vs Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
25:75
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
Round 11: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Francesco Lorenzi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
5.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R11 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
28th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
2.6
Surp
3.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Leonardo Eterni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Milaneschi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 57:43
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
75:25
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 77:23
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 75% | Win |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
37th • 2-4-0
33%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.9
Surp
3.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Di Persio (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
30:70
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Andrea Guastamacchio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
Round 11: Win vs Edoardo La Rosa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory
Round 12: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27, favorite upset
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Loss |
17th • 1-5-0
50%
Meta
-1.9
Perf
2.4
Surp
0.8
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Colombo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Alessandro Pistelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
75:25
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
25:75
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 27:73
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R11 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 25% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
60%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
2.5
Surp
4.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Davide Colonna (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Samuele Costantini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 55:45
Round 10: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
30:70
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 55% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.