Kassai of the Golden Sand at National Championship 2025 - Italy
Kassai of the Golden Sand
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
4.0
Surp
3.9
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Round 2: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 75:25
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Fabio Fierro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Round 13: Win vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R14 CC
Round 14: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.0 total deviation
Difficulty
3.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R3 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 75% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
| R13 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R14 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
19th • 5-1-0
50%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
6.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Tassini (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: Not enough data (5 matches)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Daniele Boselli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Andrea Milaneschi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Round 10: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 11: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
Round 12: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
6.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
16th • 4-2-0
17%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
3.6
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Andrea Tosi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 40:60, underdog victory
Round 10: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 45:55
Meta Fit
17% (1/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (2.6 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 40% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 45% | Loss |
26th • 4-2-0
33%
Meta
+1.3
Perf
2.8
Surp
4.3
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Adriano Izzi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Tosi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alessio Candido (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
35:65
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Davide Brigida (Dash I/O) - Expected: 61:39
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
4.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 60% | Win |
18th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
+0.0
Perf
3.6
Surp
3.7
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Edoardo La Rosa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 57:43
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
Round 10: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 11: Win vs Andrea Guastamacchio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70, underdog victory
Round 12: Loss vs Francesco Forghieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R2 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
53rd • 1-5-0
33%
Meta
-1.3
Perf
2.3
Surp
1.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Alessio Candido (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 51:49
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Pizzetti (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
25:75
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 25:75
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Leonardo Eterni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
R11
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Riccardo Rotondo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
Meta Fit
33% (2/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
1.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 25% | Loss |
| R10 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.5
Surp
0.2
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Pistelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Lista (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 30:70
35:65
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 36:64
Meta Fit
50% (2/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 47:53
Round 2: Loss vs Leoluca Colletti (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.