Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025

Azalea, Ace in the Hole

7 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Mirko Dolce

13th • 4-2-0

33%

Meta

+1.3

Perf

3.1

Surp

5.6

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Vincenzo Di Maio (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 34:66

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Matteo Frescucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Natan Tomeo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.3 Wins (2.7 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.1 total deviation

Difficulty

5.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Win	✓	0.43	0.14
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R11	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	2.36
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Win	✗	0.57	2.42

Daniel Mulato

24th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

2.6

Surp

1.8

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs gabriele paletti (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mario De Stefano (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniele Coppola (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Matteo Lista (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.15
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R10	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R12	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.97

Leonardo Eterni

40th • 3-3-0

83%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Samuele Costantini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Mirko Macchia (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Danilo Calcagno (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 53:47

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Simone Quartieri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.50
R11	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.57

Stefano Meoni

45th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

+0.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Diego Giacca (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gabriel Zugna (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Simone Pagani (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 46:54

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Francesco Lorenzi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 51:49

65:35

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Adriano Izzi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.52	0.18
R2	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.56
R10	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	50%	Win	✓	0.49	1.79
R12	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Davide Colonna

dropped • 1-3-0

75%

Meta

-1.0

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Milaneschi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Simone Rainaldi (Unknown)

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Francesco Lorenzi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matteo Megera (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R3	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Tommaso Fabbri

dropped • 2-1-0

33%

Meta

+0.6

Perf

1.4

Surp

0.9

Diff

Deck

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Adriano Izzi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.6 Wins (1.4 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.61	0.45
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.41
R3	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

frnacesco frigieri

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gabriel Zugna (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 43:57

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Tosi (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.48	-
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	65%	Loss	✓	0.65	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.