Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025 - Italy
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 5-3-0
100%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
3.7
Surp
3.4
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Sgura (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Guastamacchio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R13 CC
Round 13: Win vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
Round 14: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (8/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R13 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R14 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
5th • 4-3-0
86%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
3.8
Surp
3.1
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Flavio Miani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Tassini (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 55:45
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Eugenio Papavero Crusca (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
Round 12: Loss vs Andrea Malpassi (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Round 13: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Meta Fit
86% (6/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (4.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R13 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
25th • 5-1-0
100%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.3
Surp
3.2
Diff
90:10
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marco Lettieri (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Fabio Fierro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Davide Brigida (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Andrea Guastamacchio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.3 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 90% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R12 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
30th • 5-1-0
100%
Meta
+1.1
Perf
2.1
Surp
4.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Marco Lettieri (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
90:10
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 89:11
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Antonio Briola (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Daniele Boselli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.1 Wins (3.9 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.1 total deviation
Difficulty
4.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 90% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
9th • 4-2-0
83%
Meta
+0.9
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.9
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matteo Favretto (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: Not enough data (6 matches)
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Antonio Kutter (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Antonio Briola (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
| R11 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
20th • 3-2-1
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Draw vs Marcello Mutalipassi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 51:49
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Davide Brigida (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
60:40
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41
60:40
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Edoardo La Rosa (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Andrea Caregnato (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36
Round 12: Loss vs Fabio Fierro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Draw |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R10 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 60% | Win |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
31st • 1-5-0
83%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
3.1
Surp
0.1
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Simone Quartieri (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
Round 2: Loss vs Daniele Frattarelli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Colombo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
Round 10: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 11: Loss vs Lorenzo Bonaga (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Samuele Costantini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
0.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R10 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-1-0
100%
Meta
0.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.5
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Matteo Blasi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Matteo Frescucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (2/2 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.