National Championship 2025 - Italy - Dash I/O (CC)

Dash I/O

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Francesco Lorenzi

38th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

3.7

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Fabio Fierro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

25:75

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Lorenzo Latino (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Davide Colonna (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Stefano Meoni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Francesco D'Amendola (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 60:40

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

3.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Win	✗	0.76	0.69
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.27
R11	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.40	1.33
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Fabio Fierro

11th • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Francesco Lorenzi (Dash I/O) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Frescucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 24:76

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.26
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R10	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R11	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	25%	Loss	✗	0.24	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Win	✗	0.63	2.88

Simone Quartieri

35th • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

+0.0

Perf

2.6

Surp

2.1

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Gianluigi Lia (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Piergiorgio Villani (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Francesco Forghieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Leonardo Eterni (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matteo Blasi (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

2.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.40
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Davide Brigida

36th • 2-4-0

33%

Meta

-0.7

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.9

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Natan Tomeo (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 44:56

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 59:41

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Matteo Frescucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Win vs Lorenzo Di Persio (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 56:44

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 42:58

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.7 Wins (2.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.38
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R11	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	55%	Win	✓	0.44	1.54
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.