National Championship 2025 - Italy - Vynnset, Iron Maiden (CC)

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lorenzo Di Persio

43rd • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.0

Surp

0.7

Diff

Deck

30:70

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manuel Ruocco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Davide Brigida (Dash I/O) - Expected: 44:56

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Davide Ricci (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 81:19, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.39
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.81	-

Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

1.7

Surp

1.3

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 32:68, underdog victory

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Megera (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.7 total deviation

Difficulty

1.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Win	✗	0.68	1.09
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-

Alessandro Sgura

dropped • 1-2-0

33%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.3

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.26
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.