Vynnset, Iron Maiden at National Championship 2025

Vynnset, Iron Maiden

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Lorenzo Di Persio

43rd • 2-4-0

67%

Meta

-1.6

Perf

2.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Riccardo Di Cesare (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Manuel Ruocco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

65:35

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

45:55

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Davide Brigida (Dash I/O) - Expected: 45:55

80:20

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Davide Ricci (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.29
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-
R11	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-
R12	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	80%	Loss	✓	0.80	-

Mauro Giuseppe Di Lauro

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

1.6

Surp

1.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Andrea Mengucci (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Sebastiano Zagatti (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 35:65, underdog victory

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Matteo Megera (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

1.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.65	1.01
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Loss	✓	0.67	-

Alessandro Sgura

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

1.2

Surp

0.2

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Leoluca Colletti (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 67:33

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 31:69

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Lorenzo Brambilla Pisoni (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 60:40, favorite upset

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	30%	Loss	✗	0.31	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.