Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

5 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Andrea Guastamacchio

32nd • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.0

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Andrea Colombo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 64:36

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

40:60

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Matteo Frescucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	65%	Win	✓	0.36	0.21
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Win	✗	0.59	0.64
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.94
R11	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R12	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-

Matteo Lista

34th • 3-3-0

50%

Meta

-0.1

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.6

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Jaselli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniele Boselli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Samuele Costantini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Francesco Forghieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

30:70

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.36
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.26
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.94
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R12	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Riccardo Rotondo

54th • 2-4-0

100%

Meta

-1.7

Perf

3.3

Surp

2.7

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Guastamacchio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

75:25

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 75:25, favorite upset

R10

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)

55:45

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Flavio Miani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 52:48

70:30

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Danilo Calcagno (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

Meta Fit

100% (6/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.7 Wins (3.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.3 total deviation

Difficulty

2.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R3	CC	Marlynn, Treasure Hunter	75%	Loss	✓	0.75	-
R10	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.67
R11	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R12	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	1.03

Edoardo La Rosa

44th • 1-5-0

83%

Meta

-2.4

Perf

3.4

Surp

0.5

Diff

70:30

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30, favorite upset

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Michele Maietta (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 58:42

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Marcello Mutalipassi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 52:48

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

55:45

R12 CC

Round 12: Loss vs Gabriel Zugna (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 53:47

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

3.4 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Loss	✓	0.70	-
R2	CC	Kano, Dracai of Aether	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R3	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	50%	Win	✓	0.48	0.48
R10	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R12	CC	Dorinthea Ironsong	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-

Andrea Pizzetti

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.2

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.9

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 41:59

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Danilo Calcagno (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 70:30

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 68:32

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.9 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R2	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	70%	Win	✓	0.30	0.34
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.56

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.