Oscilio, Constella Intelligence
5 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
32nd • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.6
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.0
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Andrea Colombo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alessandro Bracci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
Round 11: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
45:55
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Matteo Frescucci (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.6 Wins (3.4 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R12 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
34th • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
2.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Filippo Barbani (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alessandro Jaselli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 46:54
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniele Boselli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Samuele Costantini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Francesco Forghieri (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
30:70
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Daniel Mulato (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (3.1 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
| R11 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 30% | Loss |
54th • 2-4-0
100%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
3.2
Surp
2.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrea Guastamacchio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 2: Loss vs Federico Sirri (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Round 3: Loss vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
R10
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs None (Unknown)
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Flavio Miani (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49
70:30
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Danilo Calcagno (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (3.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R3 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 65% | Loss |
| R10 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R11 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R12 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
44th • 1-5-0
83%
Meta
-2.4
Perf
3.3
Surp
0.4
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Bigagli (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Michele Maietta (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 54:46
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Marcello Mutalipassi (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Lorenzo Tarateta (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Round 11: Loss vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Gabriel Zugna (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-2.4 Wins (3.4 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
3.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Loss |
| R2 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 55% | Win |
| R10 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Loss |
| R12 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-1-0
67%
Meta
+0.2
Perf
1.1
Surp
1.0
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs filippo pirazzoli (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57
70:30
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Danilo Calcagno (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.2 Wins (1.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.1 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Kassai of the Golden Sand | 70% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 65% | Win |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.