Florian, Rotwood Harbinger at National Championship 2025 - Italy
Florian, Rotwood Harbinger
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
46th • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+1.0
Perf
2.2
Surp
2.5
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Andrea Guastamacchio (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 36:64
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Gianluigi Lia (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 65:35
70:30
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs "Lello" Alessandro Stefanelli (Marlynn, Treasure Hunter) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Davide Ricci (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 65:35
25:75
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Alessio Candido (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 25:75
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 35% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Marlynn, Treasure Hunter | 70% | Win |
| R11 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 65% | Win |
| R12 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 25% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
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Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.