Verdance, Thorn of the Rose at National Championship 2025

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Giulio Monaco

23rd • 3-3-0

33%

Meta

+0.7

Perf

2.9

Surp

4.3

Diff

40:60

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Alessandro Jaselli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Alessio Candido (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tommaso Viscido (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 55:45

25:75

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Lorenzo Cavazzini (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Diego Giacca (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73

25:75

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Alberto Di Blasi (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 27:73, underdog victory

Meta Fit

33% (2/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

4.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	0.23
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.55	-
R10	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R11	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Loss	✗	0.27	-
R12	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	25%	Win	✗	0.73	3.74

Alessio Candido

41st • 3-3-0

67%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

2.8

Surp

3.3

Diff

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Danilo Calcagno (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Giulio Monaco (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Andrea Caregnato (Kassai of the Golden Sand) - Expected: 49:51

40:60

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Davide Ricci (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory

40:60

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Matteo Megera (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 42:58

75:25

R12 CC

Round 12: Win vs Andrea Colombo (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 75:25

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Win	✓	0.51	0.17
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Kassai of the Golden Sand	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R10	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Win	✗	0.62	2.34
R11	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	40%	Loss	✗	0.42	-
R12	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	75%	Win	✓	0.25	0.82

Vincenzo Di Maio

dropped • 0-3-0

33%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mirko Dolce (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Gennaro Ciampa Mango (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

40:60

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Alessandro Jaselli (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 38:62

Meta Fit

33% (1/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	40%	Loss	✗	0.38	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.