Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Italy
Arakni, Marionette
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
51st • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.9
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.5
Diff
45:55
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Daniele Coppola (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Lorenzo Miele (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41
R3
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Simone Rainaldi (Unknown)
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Manuel Ruocco (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Riccardo Rotondo (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Andrea Nicastro (Kano, Dracai of Aether) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.9 Wins (2.9 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 45% | Loss |
| R11 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Kano, Dracai of Aether | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.