National Championship 2025 - Portugal - Verdance, Thorn of the Rose (CC)

Verdance, Thorn of the Rose

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Nuno Amaral

5th • 5-2-0

86%

Meta

+1.0

Perf

2.9

Surp

2.4

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manuel Cunha (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Augusto Silva (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 72:28

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Pedro Pereira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Jose Alves (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Rui Carvalho (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 60:40

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 52:48

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	65%	Win	✓	0.33	0.08
R2	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	70%	Win	✓	0.28	0.13
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.43
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.89
R8	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.83
R9	CC	Dash I/O	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R10	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

João Martins

23rd • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.2

Surp

4.2

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Jorge Monteiro (Unknown)

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 54:46

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Henrique Brito (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marco Pinto (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Pedro Pereira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 46:54

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.2 total deviation

Difficulty

4.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, Marionette	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R7	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	1.03
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.33
R9	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	45%	Win	✗	0.54	1.66

Pedro Pereira

dropped • 2-3-0

80%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

2.6

Surp

0.6

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Daniel Fernandes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 43:57

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Samuel Cordeiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 54:46

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Nuno Amaral (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Filipe Camacho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 57:43

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs João Martins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

80% (4/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (2.5 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.57	0.25
R2	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	55%	Win	✓	0.46	0.35
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-
R8	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Nuno Cameira

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

80:20

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Joao Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 81:19

30:70

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Vitor Rocha (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 29:71

85:15

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Tiago Marques (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 85:15

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	80%	Win	✓	0.19	0.07
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-
R7	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	85%	Win	✓	0.15	0.42

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.