Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025

Arakni, Marionette

6 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Jose Alves

13th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

2.7

Surp

2.6

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Francisco Pimenta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs José Guimarães (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Vitorino Oliveira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 48:52

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Nuno Amaral (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

70:30

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.7 total deviation

Difficulty

2.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.19
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.25
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	50%	Loss	✓	0.47	-
R7	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-
R8	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	1.46
R9	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.75

Pedro Carvalho

20th • 4-2-0

50%

Meta

+1.1

Perf

3.0

Surp

2.2

Diff

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Carla Correia (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs João Martins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 44:56

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Afonso Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs José Henriques (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Paulo Sherring (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

2.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.19
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.40
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.50
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.12

Lucas Golden

27th • 3-2-1

83%

Meta

-0.2

Perf

2.8

Surp

2.4

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs José Guimarães (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Paulo Resende (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 53:47

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs David Rodrigues (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 32:68

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Filipe Casimiro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Paulo Sherring (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Dinis Gomes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

2.4 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	55%	Win	✓	0.47	0.31
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	30%	Loss	✗	0.32	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Win	✓	0.42	0.93
R8	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Draw	✓	0.59	-
R9	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	1.12

Filipe Ficalho

28th • 2-3-1

83%

Meta

-1.3

Perf

3.5

Surp

3.2

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Henrique Brito (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 58:42

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Alain Franco (Unknown)

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Cunha (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Draw vs Samuel Cordeiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tiago Marques (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

3.2 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	60%	Loss	✓	0.58	-
R2	CC	Unknown	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	70%	Loss	✓	0.71	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	35%	Win	✗	0.63	1.67
R8	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Draw	✓	0.60	-
R9	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

Afonso Fernandes

dropped • 2-2-0

50%

Meta

-0.0

Perf

1.9

Surp

0.7

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Filipe Camacho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 47:53

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

45:55

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Francisco Pimenta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

50% (2/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.0 Wins (2.0 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.19
R2	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.53	0.55
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Loss	✗	0.44	-

Rui Fernandes

dropped • 1-2-0

67%

Meta

-0.5

Perf

1.6

Surp

0.8

Diff

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tiago Marques (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: Not enough data (3 matches)

45:55

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Eduardo Ferreira (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 44:56

55:45

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs João Lemos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 57:43

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

1.6 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R2	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	45%	Win	✗	0.56	0.78
R3	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	55%	Loss	✓	0.57	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.