Arakni, Marionette
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
13th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.7
Surp
2.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Francisco Pimenta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs José Guimarães (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Vitorino Oliveira (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 49:51
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Nuno Amaral (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
60:40
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Win |
20th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.9
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Carla Correia (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs João Martins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Afonso Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
Round 8: Loss vs José Henriques (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Paulo Sherring (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
27th • 3-2-1
67%
Meta
-0.3
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs José Guimarães (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Paulo Resende (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs David Rodrigues (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Filipe Casimiro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Paulo Sherring (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Dinis Gomes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.3 Wins (3.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Draw |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
28th • 2-3-1
83%
Meta
-1.5
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Henrique Brito (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 55:45
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Patrick Alain Franco (Unknown)
Round 3: Loss vs Manuel Cunha (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
60:40
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Samuel Cordeiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39
80:20
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Tiago Marques (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 80:20
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Draw |
| R9 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 80% | Win |
dropped • 2-2-0
75%
Meta
-0.1
Perf
1.9
Surp
0.7
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Filipe Camacho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Francisco Pimenta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
75% (3/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
1.9 total deviation
Difficulty
0.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
dropped • 1-2-0
67%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
1.7
Surp
0.6
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Tiago Marques (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 80:20, favorite upset
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Eduardo Ferreira (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs João Lemos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 43:57
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (1.8 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro | 80% | Loss |
| R2 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.