Oscilio, Constella Intelligence at National Championship

Oscilio, Constella Intelligence

4 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Guilherme Silva

17th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.5

Perf

2.4

Surp

1.7

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs João Gomes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Bernardo Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 65:35

40:60

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59

60:40

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs David Rodrigues (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42

55:45

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs João Martins (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.4 total deviation

Difficulty

1.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.10
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.21
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	65%	Win	✓	0.35	0.31
R7	CC	Dash I/O	40%	Loss	✗	0.41	-
R8	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	60%	Win	✓	0.42	1.04
R9	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Vitorino Oliveira

dropped • 3-1-0

75%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

1.9

Surp

1.5

Diff

Deck

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Manuel Silva (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 62:38

40:60

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Filipe Casimiro (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 42:58

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Jose Alves (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 51:49

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (2.1 expected, 3 actual)

Surprise

1.9 total deviation

Difficulty

1.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Levia, Shadowborn Abomination	65%	Win	✓	0.38	0.17
R2	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	40%	Win	✗	0.58	0.62
R3	CC	Arakni, Marionette	50%	Win	✓	0.49	0.72
R7	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-

Ruan Alves

dropped • 2-1-0

67%

Meta

+0.3

Perf

0.9

Surp

0.5

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bruno Mendes (Fai, Rising Rebellion) - Expected: 56:44

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Tiago Marques (Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro) - Expected: 83:17

30:70

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 29:71

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.3 Wins (1.7 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

0.9 total deviation

Difficulty

0.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Fai, Rising Rebellion	55%	Win	✓	0.44	0.28
R2	CC	Maxx 'The Hype' Nitro	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.18
R3	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	30%	Loss	✗	0.29	-

Tiago Queirós

dropped • 0-2-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

1.1

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 51:49

55:45

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Joao Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 54:46

Meta Fit

100% (2/2 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (1.1 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R2	CC	Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty	55%	Loss	✓	0.54	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.