Azalea, Ace in the Hole at National Championship 2025 - Portugal
Azalea, Ace in the Hole
1 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 7-2-0
100%
Meta
+2.1
Perf
4.2
Surp
4.2
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs João Lemos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 54:46
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Ruan Alves (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Nuno Amaral (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 57:43
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 48:52
60:40
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 58:42
Meta Fit
100% (9/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.1 Wins (4.9 expected, 7 actual)
Surprise
4.2 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R10 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 55% | Win |
| R11 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 60% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.