Cindra, Dracai of Retribution at National Championship 2025 - Portugal
Cindra, Dracai of Retribution
9 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
1st • 8-1-0
56%
Meta
+2.8
Perf
3.7
Surp
5.8
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Henrique Brito (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
70:30
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Vitor Rocha (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
70:30
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Rafael Salsa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56
40:60
R12 CC
Round 12: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 42:58
Meta Fit
56% (5/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.8 Wins (5.2 expected, 8 actual)
Surprise
3.7 total deviation
Difficulty
5.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R7 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R10 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R11 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 40% | Win |
5th • 4-3-0
71%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
4.3
Surp
2.3
Diff
Round 1: Win vs Joao Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rui Carvalho (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38
Round 3: Win vs José Henriques (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Round 7: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Round 8: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Diogo Henriques (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 10: Loss vs Rafael Salsa (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29, favorite upset
Meta Fit
71% (5/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (4.0 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
2.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Loss |
9th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.5
Surp
2.5
Diff
70:30
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rúben Caldeira (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs David Rodrigues (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 58:42
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Tiago Rodrigues (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
70:30
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs João Gomes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 71:29
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R2 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R8 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 70% | Win |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
26th • 2-4-0
67%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.3
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Jose Alves (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Jorge Monteiro (Unknown)
Round 3: Loss vs Samuel Cordeiro (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Afonso Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
35:65
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Filipe Camacho (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
35:65
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs José Guimarães (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
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| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
dropped • 3-2-0
40%
Meta
+0.7
Perf
2.6
Surp
3.8
Diff
60:40
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pedro Pereira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 58:42
Round 2: Win vs Joao Pereira (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 39:61, underdog victory
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paulo Sherring (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Henrique Brito (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 64:36
Round 8: Win vs José Guimarães (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
Meta Fit
40% (2/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.7 Wins (2.3 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
2.6 total deviation
Difficulty
3.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R7 | Kayo, Armed and Dangerous | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
100%
Meta
-0.7
Perf
1.7
Surp
1.0
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Rui Carvalho (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 62:38, favorite upset
Round 2: Loss vs Marco Pinto (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Eduardo Ferreira (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
100% (3/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.7 Wins (1.7 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.7 total deviation
Difficulty
1.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Win |
dropped • 1-2-0
0%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
1.3
Surp
0.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Luís Monteiro (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Manuel Cunha (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 44:56
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 31:69
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (1.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
1.3 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Jarl Vetreiði | 30% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.6
Perf
1.6
Surp
0.0
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 41:59
Round 3: Loss vs Rodolfo Brites (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.6 Wins (1.6 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.6 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Dash I/O | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 60% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tiago Rodrigues (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 37:63
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Rui Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 56:44
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Guilherme Coutinho (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 55% | Loss |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 50% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.