Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025 - Portugal
Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X
6 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
10th • 5-1-0
100%
Meta
+1.4
Perf
2.7
Surp
3.0
Diff
65:35
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Eduardo Ferreira (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs André Cardoso (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Diogo Henriques (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nuno Miguel Correia das Neves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34
Round 8: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 67:33, favorite upset
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Rui Carvalho (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
100% (6/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.7 total deviation
Difficulty
3.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R2 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Dash I/O | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Win |
14th • 5-1-0
83%
Meta
+1.7
Perf
2.9
Surp
4.2
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Marco Pinto (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47
Round 3: Loss vs Ernesto Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
70:30
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Nuno Paiva (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Augusto Silva (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.7 Wins (3.3 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
2.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
19th • 3-3-0
67%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.0
Surp
2.5
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Afonso Fernandes (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Manuel Silva (Levia, Shadowborn Abomination) - Expected: 55:45
Round 3: Loss vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Pedro Pereira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55
65:35
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Francisco Pimenta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Paulo Resende (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.0 total deviation
Difficulty
2.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R2 | Levia, Shadowborn Abomination | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Dash I/O | 65% | Loss |
| R7 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R9 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
21st • 3-3-0
50%
Meta
-0.0
Perf
3.1
Surp
2.6
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Lucas Golden (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Jose Alves (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Dinis Gomes (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
45:55
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs João Lemos (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56
Round 8: Loss vs Daniel Fernandes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Francisco Pimenta (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.0 Wins (3.0 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
2.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Riptide, Lurker of the Deep | 45% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
24th • 2-3-1
50%
Meta
-0.8
Perf
2.5
Surp
0.6
Diff
35:65
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs David Rodrigues (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65
55:45
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Rodolfo Brites (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Daniel Fernandes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Rui Carvalho (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R8 CC
Round 8: Draw vs Lucas Golden (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.8 Wins (2.8 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.5 total deviation
Difficulty
0.6 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Florian, Rotwood Harbinger | 35% | Loss |
| R2 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 65% | Win |
| R7 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Draw |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
31st • 2-4-0
83%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
3.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs André Cardoso (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
R2
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs None (Unknown)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs José Guimarães (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Paulo Resende (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 54:46
Round 8: Loss vs Nuno Paiva (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 69:31, favorite upset
40:60
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Lucas Golden (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
3.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 70% | Loss |
| R9 | Arakni, Marionette | 40% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.