Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship

Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter

8 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Rafael Salsa

3rd • 4-4-0

50%

Meta

+0.4

Perf

3.8

Surp

3.6

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Patrick Alain Franco (Unknown)

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Nuno Cameira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R11 CC

Round 11: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

50% (4/8 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.4 Wins (3.6 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.8 total deviation

Difficulty

3.6 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.12
R2	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R3	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.18
R7	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.35
R8	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R9	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R10	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.93
R11	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-

Bernardo Cardoso

5th • 5-2-0

29%

Meta

+2.1

Perf

3.5

Surp

4.5

Diff

Deck

45:55

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs João Gomes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

35:65

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

Meta Fit

29% (2/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+2.1 Wins (2.9 expected, 5 actual)

Surprise

3.5 total deviation

Difficulty

4.5 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Dash I/O	45%	Win	✗	0.54	0.16
R2	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Win	✗	0.63	0.41
R3	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.00
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Win	✗	0.66	1.76
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.21
R10	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-

Filipe Cunha Santos

11th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+1.2

Perf

2.9

Surp

3.3

Diff

Deck

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs José Henriques (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 51:49

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs André Cardoso (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs João Gomes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

2.9 total deviation

Difficulty

3.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Unknown	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.17
R2	CC	Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X	50%	Loss	✓	0.51	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Win	✗	0.67	0.79
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Win	✓	0.40	0.86
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	1.50

João Gomes

15th • 2-4-0

50%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.8

Surp

1.1

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 35:65

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Ícaro Peixoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Diogo Henriques (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Loss vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

50% (3/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.8 total deviation

Difficulty

1.1 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.33
R3	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Win	✗	0.64	0.74
R7	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R8	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R9	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Vitor Rocha

dropped • 2-3-0

60%

Meta

-0.6

Perf

2.0

Surp

0.3

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Rodolfo Brites (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 61:39

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nuno Cameira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 71:29

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 37:63

55:45

R8 CC

Round 8: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 56:44

Meta Fit

60% (3/5 favorable matchups)

Performance

-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)

Surprise

2.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.3 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Rhinar, Reckless Rampage	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.14
R2	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	70%	Win	✓	0.29	0.19
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R7	CC	Ira, Scarlet Revenger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R8	CC	Jarl Vetreiði	55%	Loss	✓	0.56	-

Marcos Vassão

dropped • 1-3-0

100%

Meta

-1.1

Perf

2.1

Surp

0.8

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48

50:50

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs João Gomes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Filipe Ficalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 60:40

Meta Fit

100% (4/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.1 Wins (2.1 expected, 1 actual)

Surprise

2.1 total deviation

Difficulty

0.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	50%	Loss	✓	0.52	-
R2	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Win	✓	0.50	0.75
R7	CC	Arakni, Marionette	60%	Loss	✓	0.60	-

Miguel Cardoso

dropped • 0-3-0

67%

Meta

-1.5

Perf

1.5

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

70:30

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Nuno Paiva (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

50:50

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Marcos Vassão (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)

Meta Fit

67% (2/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.5 Wins (1.5 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.5 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Vynnset, Iron Maiden	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-
R3	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.50	-

Rúben Caldeira

dropped • 0-3-0

Meta

-1.0

Perf

1.0

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

35:65

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Diogo Henriques (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 34:66

35:65

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Ícaro Peixoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 36:64

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Paulo Resende (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 33:67

Meta Fit

0% (0/3 favorable matchups)

Performance

-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

1.0 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	35%	Loss	✗	0.34	-
R2	CC	Fang, Dracai of Blades	35%	Loss	✗	0.36	-
R3	CC	Prism, Awakener of Sol	35%	Loss	✗	0.33	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.