Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter at National Championship 2025 - Portugal
Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter
8 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
3rd • 4-4-0
50%
Meta
+0.5
Perf
3.9
Surp
4.1
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Patrick Alain Franco (Unknown)
30:70
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
75:25
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Nuno Cameira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
Round 7: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
30:70
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Round 10: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R11 CC
Round 11: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
Meta Fit
50% (4/8 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.5 Wins (3.5 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
3.9 total deviation
Difficulty
4.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R3 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R8 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R9 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R10 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R11 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
5th • 5-2-0
29%
Meta
+2.2
Perf
3.6
Surp
4.8
Diff
40:60
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Bernardo José Alves (Dash I/O) - Expected: 40:60
Round 2: Win vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62, underdog victory
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs João Gomes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 8: Win vs Ernesto Silva (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71, underdog victory
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
40:60
R10 CC
Round 10: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
Meta Fit
29% (2/7 favorable matchups)
Performance
+2.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 5 actual)
Surprise
3.6 total deviation
Difficulty
4.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Dash I/O | 40% | Win |
| R2 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Win |
| R9 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Win |
| R10 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
11th • 4-2-0
50%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
2.8
Surp
3.2
Diff
R1
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs None (Unknown)
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs José Henriques (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 47:53
Round 3: Win vs André Cardoso (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63, underdog victory
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Pedro Carvalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs João Gomes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (2.8 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
3.2 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Unknown | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 45% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
15th • 2-4-0
50%
Meta
-0.4
Perf
2.8
Surp
1.1
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Guilherme Silva (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 32:68
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Marcos Vassão (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 3: Win vs Ícaro Peixoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67, underdog victory
50:50
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Bernardo Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
30:70
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Diogo Henriques (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Loss vs Filipe Cunha Santos (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
50% (3/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.4 Wins (2.4 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
1.1 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Oscilio, Constella Intelligence | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R3 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Win |
| R7 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R8 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R9 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 2-3-0
60%
Meta
-0.6
Perf
2.0
Surp
0.4
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs Rodolfo Brites (Rhinar, Reckless Rampage) - Expected: 55:45
75:25
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Nuno Cameira (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 73:27
30:70
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
40:60
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Mariano Lemus (Ira, Scarlet Revenger) - Expected: 38:62
Round 8: Loss vs Augusto Silva (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
60% (3/5 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.6 Wins (2.6 expected, 2 actual)
Surprise
2.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.4 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Rhinar, Reckless Rampage | 55% | Win |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 75% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R7 | Ira, Scarlet Revenger | 40% | Loss |
| R8 | Jarl Vetreiði | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 1-3-0
100%
Meta
-1.2
Perf
2.2
Surp
0.8
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Tiago Polónio (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 52:48
50:50
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs João Gomes (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Miguel Cardoso (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Round 7: Loss vs Filipe Ficalho (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset
Meta Fit
100% (4/4 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 1 actual)
Surprise
2.2 total deviation
Difficulty
0.8 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 50% | Loss |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Arakni, Marionette | 65% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
67%
Meta
-1.4
Perf
1.4
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Mário Abrantes (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
Round 2: Loss vs Nuno Paiva (Vynnset, Iron Maiden) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Marcos Vassão (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
Meta Fit
67% (2/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.4 Wins (1.4 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.4 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Vynnset, Iron Maiden | 65% | Loss |
| R3 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 50% | Loss |
dropped • 0-3-0
0%
Meta
-1.0
Perf
1.0
Surp
0.0
Diff
30:70
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Diogo Henriques (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 29:71
35:65
R2 CC
Round 2: Loss vs Ícaro Peixoto (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 33:67
35:65
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Paulo Resende (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 37:63
Meta Fit
0% (0/3 favorable matchups)
Performance
-1.0 Wins (1.0 expected, 0 actual)
Surprise
1.0 total deviation
Difficulty
0.0 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 30% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 35% | Loss |
| R3 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 35% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.