Arakni, Marionette at National Championship 2025 - Sweden
Arakni, Marionette
4 players • Match results by round
Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations
2nd • 6-3-0
67%
Meta
+1.2
Perf
4.3
Surp
4.5
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
65:35
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Alex Moynagh (Fang, Dracai of Blades) - Expected: 65:35
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Paul Petersson-Rebelo (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Stefan Persson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Jacob Trossing (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
65:35
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R10 CC
Round 10: Win vs Niklas Astner (Prism, Awakener of Sol) - Expected: 45:55
45:55
R11 CC
Round 11: Win vs Joakim Gustafsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R12 CC
Round 12: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Meta Fit
67% (6/9 favorable matchups)
Performance
+1.2 Wins (4.8 expected, 6 actual)
Surprise
4.3 total deviation
Difficulty
4.5 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Fang, Dracai of Blades | 65% | Win |
| R3 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R10 | Prism, Awakener of Sol | 45% | Win |
| R11 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R12 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
9th • 4-2-0
67%
Meta
+0.8
Perf
2.8
Surp
2.9
Diff
55:45
R1 CC
Round 1: Loss vs Andrej Erdelsky (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Max Harudd Segerstein (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Win vs Jesper Lindström (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
65:35
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Davide Quaglio (Dorinthea Ironsong) - Expected: 63:37
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Loss vs Joakim Gustafsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 46:54
55:45
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Stefan Persson (Jarl Vetreiði) - Expected: 57:43
Meta Fit
67% (4/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)
Surprise
2.8 total deviation
Difficulty
2.9 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R2 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Win |
| R7 | Dorinthea Ironsong | 65% | Win |
| R8 | Verdance, Thorn of the Rose | 45% | Loss |
| R9 | Jarl Vetreiði | 55% | Win |
24th • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.1
Surp
3.3
Diff
Round 1: Loss vs Mikael Lundberg (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39, favorite upset
60:40
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Lewis Day (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 61:39
55:45
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Niklas Bengtsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Loss vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
45:55
R8 CC
Round 8: Win vs Jacob Nielsen (Dash I/O) - Expected: 46:54
50:50
R9 CC
Round 9: Win vs Klas Bergholtz (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.1 total deviation
Difficulty
3.3 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Loss |
| R2 | Azalea, Ace in the Hole | 60% | Win |
| R3 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Loss |
| R8 | Dash I/O | 45% | Win |
| R9 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
25th • 3-3-0
83%
Meta
-0.2
Perf
3.4
Surp
1.7
Diff
50:50
R1 CC
Round 1: Win vs lilli Mack (Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty) - Expected: 48:52
40:60
R2 CC
Round 2: Win vs Oscar Ålund (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 40:60
50:50
R3 CC
Round 3: Loss vs Martin Andreasson (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 50:50 (mirror match)
55:45
R7 CC
Round 7: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 53:47
Round 8: Loss vs Thomas Haugmo (Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X) - Expected: 64:36, favorite upset
Round 9: Loss vs Rikard Wallström (Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn) - Expected: 65:35, favorite upset
Meta Fit
83% (5/6 favorable matchups)
Performance
-0.2 Wins (3.2 expected, 3 actual)
Surprise
3.4 total deviation
Difficulty
1.7 difficulty points
Round-by-Round Breakdown
Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display
Swipe left to see all columns →
| Round | Opponent | Expected | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| R1 | Victor Goldmane, High and Mighty | 50% | Win |
| R2 | Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter | 40% | Win |
| R3 | Arakni, Marionette | 50% | Loss |
| R7 | Cindra, Dracai of Retribution | 55% | Win |
| R8 | Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X | 65% | Loss |
| R9 | Ser Boltyn, Breaker of Dawn | 65% | Loss |
Legend
Win
Loss
Draw
Unknown Opponent
!
!!
Performance Metrics
Meta
% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.
Perf
Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.
Surp
Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.
Diff
Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.