Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X at National Championship 2025

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Albert Schütt

5th • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+1.6

Perf

2.5

Surp

2.8

Diff

65:35

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

85:15

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicklas Holm (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 83:17

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Bergström (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nic Palm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Joakim Gustafsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 45:55

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.6 Wins (4.4 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.5 total deviation

Difficulty

2.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.09
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	85%	Win	✓	0.17	0.08
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.28
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.64
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.98
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.45	-

Thomas Haugmo

12th • 4-2-0

67%

Meta

+0.8

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.7

Diff

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christofer Lindholm (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 53:47

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Bergström (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

70:30

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Bryant (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Leonardo Baranzano (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

40:60

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jesper Lindström (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 41:59

45:55

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Johnny Vretlind (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 44:56

Meta Fit

67% (4/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.8 Wins (3.2 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.7 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Win	✓	0.32	0.28
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.89
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	40%	Win	✗	0.59	1.74
R9	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	45%	Win	✗	0.56	1.80

Frej Karlsson

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.3

Perf

2.3

Surp

0.0

Diff

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leonardo Baranzano (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 66:34, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 35:65

70:30

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Bryant (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 68:32, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.3 Wins (2.3 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.3 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.66	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.35	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	70%	Loss	✓	0.68	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.