National Championship 2025 - Sweden - Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X (CC)

Arakni, 5L!p3d 7hRu 7h3 cR4X

3 players • Match results by round

Tip: Click any player row to see detailed round-by-round calculations

Albert Schütt

5th • 6-1-0

86%

Meta

+1.8

Perf

2.6

Surp

3.0

Diff

Deck

60:40

R1 CC

Round 1: Win vs Mikael Vedemar (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

75:25

R2 CC

Round 2: Win vs Nicklas Holm (Puffin, Hightail) - Expected: 77:23

60:40

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Markus Jonsson (Cindra, Dracai of Retribution) - Expected: 61:39

60:40

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs John Bergström (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Nic Palm (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

60:40

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Mikael Lundberg (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

45:55

R10 CC

Round 10: Loss vs Joakim Gustafsson (Verdance, Thorn of the Rose) - Expected: 43:57

Meta Fit

86% (6/7 favorable matchups)

Performance

+1.8 Wins (4.2 expected, 6 actual)

Surprise

2.6 total deviation

Difficulty

3.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.10
R2	CC	Puffin, Hightail	75%	Win	✓	0.23	0.11
R3	CC	Cindra, Dracai of Retribution	60%	Win	✓	0.39	0.30
R7	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.76
R8	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.75
R9	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Win	✓	0.41	0.98
R10	CC	Verdance, Thorn of the Rose	45%	Loss	✗	0.43	-

Thomas Haugmo

12th • 4-2-0

83%

Meta

+0.9

Perf

3.0

Surp

4.8

Diff

Deck

50:50

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Christofer Lindholm (Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter) - Expected: 49:51

60:40

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs John Bergström (Azalea, Ace in the Hole) - Expected: 59:41

65:35

R3 CC

Round 3: Win vs Daniel Bryant (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37

55:45

R7 CC

Round 7: Win vs Leonardo Baranzano (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

35:65

R8 CC

Round 8: Win vs Jesper Lindström (Arakni, Marionette) - Expected: 36:64, underdog victory

50:50

R9 CC

Round 9: Win vs Johnny Vretlind (Riptide, Lurker of the Deep) - Expected: 52:48

Meta Fit

83% (5/6 favorable matchups)

Performance

+0.9 Wins (3.1 expected, 4 actual)

Surprise

3.0 total deviation

Difficulty

4.8 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

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Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Gravy Bones, Shipwrecked Looter	50%	Loss	✓	0.49	-
R2	CC	Azalea, Ace in the Hole	60%	Loss	✓	0.59	-
R3	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Win	✓	0.37	0.33
R7	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Win	✓	0.47	1.05
R8	CC	Arakni, Marionette	35%	Win	✗	0.64	1.98
R9	CC	Riptide, Lurker of the Deep	50%	Win	✓	0.48	1.41

Frej Karlsson

dropped • 0-4-0

75%

Meta

-2.2

Perf

2.2

Surp

0.0

Diff

Deck

55:45

R1 CC

Round 1: Loss vs Leonardo Baranzano (Oscilio, Constella Intelligence) - Expected: 53:47

65:35

R2 CC

Round 2: Loss vs Teo Rutisson (Dash I/O) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

35:65

R3 CC

Round 3: Loss vs Péter Kökény (Florian, Rotwood Harbinger) - Expected: 37:63

65:35

R7 CC

Round 7: Loss vs Daniel Bryant (Kayo, Armed and Dangerous) - Expected: 63:37, favorite upset

Meta Fit

75% (3/4 favorable matchups)

Performance

-2.2 Wins (2.2 expected, 0 actual)

Surprise

2.2 total deviation

Difficulty

0.0 difficulty points

Round-by-Round Breakdown

Win probabilities rounded to nearest 5% for consistency with match display

Swipe left to see all columns →

Round	Format	Opponent	Expected	Result	Meta	Surprise	Difficulty
R1	CC	Oscilio, Constella Intelligence	55%	Loss	✓	0.53	-
R2	CC	Dash I/O	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-
R3	CC	Florian, Rotwood Harbinger	35%	Loss	✗	0.37	-
R7	CC	Kayo, Armed and Dangerous	65%	Loss	✓	0.63	-

Legend

Win

Loss

Draw

Unknown Opponent

Minor Surprise (10-19%)

Major Surprise (≥20%)

Performance Metrics

Meta

% of rounds where the historical win rate favored you (≥50%). Higher means you faced a softer field.

Perf

Actual wins minus expected wins based on matchup odds. Positive = outperformed; negative = underperformed.

Surp

Sum of |result − win probability| per round. Near 0 means results matched expectations; higher means consistently surprising outcomes in either direction.

Diff

Win points weighted by matchup difficulty and round number (−log₂(prob) × round/total). Rewards beating long-shot matchups in late rounds.